Interesting Chart Patterns To Monitor In Coming Days...

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, my Market Pre-Market Observations, sharing with AGET friends to see if it can help you too--

9:25AM, Monday, 27 March 2006-- Overall market looks somewhat stationary or flat. Europe down a little this morning could drift us a little lower today too? NY Gold, other metals continue to be the hot commodities. NY Energies drifting down a little today.

It might grow a little quieter as the market watches, waits for comments from FOMC meeting. Tuesday it is expecting interest rate increase again. Future FED policy comments are biggest element of uncertainty right now. (I don't see them willing to stop rate increases quite yet.)

My goal this week (scenario building) is to observe the US overall markets to see if they can establish greater stability, limited drawdown or pullbacks. If by the end of the week we don't get anything really negative happen, I fully think odds are still respectable we could witness another push to newer recent highs in things like Dow Industrial, NY Composite, Valueline, Russell 3000, etc. The S&P looks ok but it still has some key resistance not broken that challenges it a little. Once it clears its area conjestion it is home free for more advances too.

If we follow the example of the European markets this week, they seem a vulnerable to some profit-taking early this week, then maybe another attempt to push their trends up again. Consequently, our US stock markets-- US lagging, not leading world markets right now-- may hesitiate earlier too, but, most probably, rebound by Thursday or Friday, as well, or this is part of my scenario building logic.

[MR]

Hi kosmicmismit,

Originally posted by kosmicmisfit
I wanted to get your opinion. I recently placed trades on these stocks (bbd, gld, pcz, ubb and cnq,)on 3/15.
In my opinion they meet all the criteria for a Type 1 trade. Do you agree?
thanks

I apologize for taking so long to evaluate your trades. Yes, all appear to be some form of a Type 1--

BBD - Banco Bradesco S.A.
UBB - Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros S.A. (Unibanco)
GLD - streetTRACKS Gold Shares
PCZ - Petro-Canada
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

It is hard to tell for sure if these setups will work out as quickly as you might like. If they stay simple corrections they should soon get going back up again. If not, you may be in a more complex Wave 4 pullback. GLD looks very favorable. PCZ ok. CNQ looks ok, not quite sure if it is in a triangle pattern or what? UBB and BBD are both vulnerable a little if they don't get going soon.

You picked ADR stocks in two of my favorite countries-- Brazil and Canada! You have very good taste! (We are going to Canada this summer; and sending our oldest son to visit Brazilian friends in Belem and Brasilia, maybe stop off to visit other friends in Buenos Aires, Argentina on way down. Brazilians are wonderful people!)

Best wishes on your trades. Will track them for a while and followup if see anything more.

Sincerely, Marc

[DuaneG]

Hi Marc,

I came across this pattern over the weekend and thought it may be something you would be interested in. Over the past week, we've been illustrating various patterns using the Type I Buy strategy. Here's another for those are interested in following this one on their own...

We were technically triggered in using the Regression Trend Channel as the Pearsons R is > than .90. The buy trigger for this setup is near the $18.44 area. I was a little late, but was able to lock in near the $18.70 area. Stops and targets are set...we'll see how this unfolds in the upcoming days....Have fun.

This chart and all commentary is purely for educational purposes only

[MR]

Duane,

I certainly looks attractive. Looks like you found another winner. Will track it with you.

Good luck, best wishes, Marc

[MR]

kosmicmismit,

I didn't know Brazil's Finance leader was going to resign when I wrote these comments, but it appears both UBB and BBD are under pressure today, and now appear to be developing into a more complex correction. Use your weekly or monthly wave - 4 - projections as guides in this bigger pullback. If the first 4 holds, it could rally for a short time then, in all probability, push down again. It seems like both stocks could be vulnerable for more dips the next two, three weeks. Look then for stability and a bigger Type1, longer term setup.

Originally posted by MR
UBB and BBD are both vulnerable a little if they don't get going soon.

[MR]

kosmicmismit,

I did a quick look chart for you of UBB - Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros S.A. (Unibanco). Hope the picture helps.

Marc

[MR]

kosmicmismit,

I also did a quick look chart for you of BBD - Banco Bradesco S.A....

Hope this picture helps you...

Marc

[MR]

(Posted elsewhere first, sharing with my AGET friends my observations...)

12:22PM, Tuesday, 28 March 2006-- Growing encouraged today can end on a positive note after the Fed announces next interest rate increase at 2:15pm. Nasdaq growing stronger, Dow and S&P beginning to inch up as well. I stayed fully invested going into this critical time. We will just have to be patient and see what is to come in a couple hours. Energy stocks might benefit by Nigeria and Iran concerns driving up NY energy futures once again.

[MR]

I have to admit, the thought has been crossing my mind, Sears Holding on an hourly time frame could be setting up a Type 1-- if this last pivot low holds (see attached chart). If I had a littel cash free, I might be interested in exploring it idea for an aggressive trade. It would have to pop up asap after Fed announcement, or before the week is over for me to feel more comfortable with it enough to stay longer. -marc

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, for my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 2:25PM, Tuesday, 28 March 2006-- Fed announced rate increase and most probably policy not changing yet. Why market is surprised?

It looks like the potential easy money trade ideas are on hold for today. The Dow and S&P being pulled down as we speak. It is exactly what most traders would expect. To me it looks like now 10 minutes after the increase was announced the market is being drawn down in an attempt to find some stops. It does not yet appear to be dramatic selling or profit-taking yet. It is too early to predict what the ultimate bias will end up being for today. We have less than two hours left to monitor for an idea what is to come later this week, is my guess.

To reiterate what I said earlier yesterday, as long as the profit-taking or drawdown was limited early this week, we still have respectable odds another rally attempt could show up before the end of this week in the leading US indecies....

[MR]

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[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 8:50 AM, Wednesday, 29 March 2006-- Today is a wait and see day. If the overall US market doesn't do too much today but hold up or have a slight upward bias, it helps form a better base for an end of week rebound.... One thing I am noticing is the European markets have not yet pulled back enough to generate better buys, so if they drop a little more later this week it could push a rally into next week.... We tend to follow their behavior lately more than they follow us.... Pay particular attention to the end of the month position squaring that could be going on soon, as March is soon over.

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

2:03 PM, Wednesday, 29 March 2006-- Would you say the rebound so far today
qualifies as a potential return of the previous uptrend? I am impressed....

Marc Rinehart 2:25PM, Tuesday, 28 March 2006-- . . .
To reiterate what I said earlier yesterday, as long as the profit-taking or drawdown was limited early this week,
we still have respectable odds another rally attempt could show up before the end of this week
in the leading US indecies.

[MR]

Posted earlier elsewhere, sharing with my AGET friends....

Marc Rinehart 8:45 PM, Thursday, 30 March 2006-- Gold and other metals continuing the trend up since we commented they looked attractive. Unbelievable how strong silver is becoming! Gold may be only lagging in its behavior... is $600 coming soon? Looks like it. Energy stocks, also, appear to be trending up again. Seems like many of the European indices pivoted back up this morning. Maybe their pullbacks are completed and they want to work up to newer highs again... noticed DAX and CAC have little gaps created today. Maybe they cover gaps today, stage better rallies tomorrow?

[MR]

Few things:
(1) Was looking for a rally to happen the end of this week. (see previous posts below) Didn't anticipate Wednesday rally starting, but today's (Thur) open is encouraging we are on track with idea. (NY Composite, Value Line, just made a newer high, for example.
(2) The gentleman who asked me questions about his stocks-- BBD, UBB, PCZ, CNQ, and GLD-- I said would track and update on them to help him.... your GLD newer high today and looks like it can continue... CNQ and PCZ on track to working to previous high and starting that trek up today more clearly... yur BBD and UBB will be ok longer term you just need patience on them as they form a more complex wave 4 is all.
(3) Gold clearly taking off now and on its way to $600 is my guess. Silver bigger Wave 3 in progress. Energy stocks worth a looksee.
(4) bonus- AAPL weekly wave 4 bottoming bet u... watch for dip now and consider evaluating the potential longer term here....