AGET Oscillator Misc Questions and Answers

[MR]

AGET "Who's In Control" Question

Fabrizio, below is a general review of the AGET "Who's In Control" concept, followed with an answer to your question, ‘who is in control’ in the current SP. I think you have asked an excellent question. I will do my best to answer it.

Here is my understanding of the "Who's In Control" concept.

10/70 (not so sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents commercials [bigger position guys who just cannot get in or out of a market but have to scale in and out over a period of time] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)

5/35 (moderate sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents position traders [who are trying to buy and sell for near-term type of moves, any where from 2 weeks to 2 or 3 months type holding of positions] trading buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)

5/17 (sensitive setting) Oscillator- represents short-term speculators [people who are trading just to get anything they can by getting in and out any where from a day trade to a few days; they don't fall in love with a position or a direction but are more focused on any short-term risk/reward opportunities they can find] buying (strength if above zero) and selling (weakness if below zero)

An oscillator is "In Control to the upside" when it is above that strength line.

An oscillator is "In Control to the downside" when it is below that strength line.

It is possible for more than one oscillator to be "in control" at the same time when they are both or all of the oscillators are above a positive or below a negative strength line. The more above or below the strength line would just add to the overall strength or weakness interpretation.

As to your question about who's in control with the SP? It depends which time frame we are talking about? As of today's date, 7/7/03, when we look at the SPU3 daily we see the 5/17 losing control to the downside, the 5/35 not in any control, and the 10/70 just inching below the upper control band line. On the daily chart it looks like no one is 'in control' currently, but the commercials seem to have the upper hand still.

When we look at SP #F daily we can see the same, but when we reissue it to a weekly chart we now can add another interpretation to this “who's in control” idea. On the SP #F weekly 10/70 Oscillator we are just above zero for the first time since 2000, and inching toward the control band. It isn't in control, but is encouraging for bullish people because it is the first time in a long time the commercials are not 'controlling' it to the downside, and it is not too far from the upper strength band. Both the SP #F weekly 5/35 and 5/17 Oscillators have been 'in control' since late April, and are still well above the strength band lines. My take on this is that on the longer time frame the control is still biased to the upside for now. Shorter-term, basis the daily it has mixed signals.

What is my handle on all this? Using just the "Who's In Control" concept, it is one reason why I am personally still holding ‘bullish’ for this summer and why I am still willing to keep monitoring for Type 1 Buy setups. It is, also, one reason why I personally moved my 401k this spring from the 1% money market mutual fund it was in the past 2 years into three other higher-risk, better reward mutual funds. The weekly Oscillators action helped me grow more confident. If I am correct in my current interpretation of what is to come, I will be rewarded more once the 10/70 Oscillator can push above its weekly strength line.

I created a Weekly and Daily SP #F chart for you to reference to, but the file is too big to attach here, so please go to the Advanced GET User Group where I will attempt to post it.

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=&groupid=20

Also, make sure you look at the DIA post from last week, as it has a similiar supportive analysis and setup picture.

Best wishes, Marc

[MR]

Aget Elliott Oscillators

QUESTION: Seen some of Marcus's postings on AGET and was wondering if you could help with the different oscillators.

(1) Not quite sure what the 'extention and alternate' osc. is , or when one should use it, furthermore if one say has a type 1buy or sell and the osc.(5,35) pulls backand stays below the breakout bands during the wave 4 period, is that considered to be a stronger type 1?

(2) Another question if say u have a type 1 trade and the alternate osc- 10,70 has pulled back to zero , does this mean it is a stronger trade than if the 5 , 35 pulled back?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BRIEF ANSWER: The Elliott Oscillator is the benchmark. It is the one we use for the standard Type 1 and 2 setups. It is based on the 5/35 Oscillator.

The alternative wave counts provide different wave counts as alternatives to the benchmark. It is a preference issue when to use an alternate wave count.

The alternate ‘Short’ and ‘Aggressive’ wave counts are more aggressive algorithms. There are based more on the 5/17 Oscillator. This oscillator crosses zero quicker. Those desiring a more aggressive wave count ideas would use this setting.

The Alternate ‘Long’ count is the least sensitive oscillator. It is based on the 10/70 oscillator. Use this oscillator in conjunction with the 5/35 Oscillator when you are wishing to either confirm a better 5/35 pattern or to identify a wave 3 extending possibility when in an existing Type 1 already.

Add the “Who’s In Control” concept to the wave count possibilities and it becomes more a powerful interpretation tool.

.click here

For more information, look at pages T-84 to T-89. It discusses a little on the alternatives in Elliott Wave analysis.

When I return from vacation will return to this topic. Below are links related to Oscillator examples.
click here #1
click here #2
click here #3

[jkeech]

Value of 10/70 oscillator

I use AGET EOD.

I think I was advised to use the 5/35 oscillator when looking at DAILY charts, and the 10/70 when looking at WEEKLY charts - I just wanted to confirm that?

When I'm looking at the DAILY charts, with the 5/35 oscillator and I see the 10/70 still on the outside of the strength lines (not in the direction I'm looking to trade in) ... how much of an indication or reliance should I take from the 10/70? Would you decide not to enter a type1 or type2 trade because the 10/70 was still looking too strong in the wrong direction?

I would have thought the 10/70 is important here, however if I waited til it pulled back to the zero line, the trade would probably be all over anyway - hence my question/confusion.

Any help gratefully appreciated - thanks.

[MR]

I use all three oscillators no matter what the time frame.

Remember the three oscillators we are talking about-- 10-70, 5/35 and 5/17 settings-- are histograms of two moving averages. The difference between the two settings is like the difference between watching a fast sports car take off and drive away from a slow 4 cylinder pickup truck. The rate of acceleration for one may be greater than the other. The three oscillators we are talking about work similarly. The further away they grow from each other the greater the momentum going on or building.

By comparing and contrasting all three we are better able to interpret what is going on with the price movements of a stock, commodity, or index.

If you want an oscillator that is most sensitive, where the two moving averages will cross zero or each other quickest you would want to use the 5/17. This is because the oscillator values are the closest to each other. The differential value is what, 12?

If you want the benchmark, use the 5/35 Elliott Oscillator. It has a 5 period with a 35 period, or a differential value of 30.

If you want something where the moving averages do not cross zero as quickly, the 10 period/70 period setting works best.

If you are using the 10/70 on a weekly to confirm a crossover, you will have to wait a lot longer than say you would if you would monitor the 5/17 which has a tighter differential. The 5/17 will cross quicker because the difference between the two moving averages is 12, while the difference between the 10/70 is 60.

If you go back to other writings, previous post examples, you will find some good ideas how to use these oscillators.

How one uses these various oscillators depends to a great degree on how well you have cross-referenced a setup, what your objective is when defining your trade setup and real opportunity. If you are looking for a quicker trade setup confirmation it might make sense to refer to the 5/17, but when you are trying to stay with a trending trade it might make more sense to reference the benchmark 5/35 to the 10/70.

When both the 5/35 and 5/70 are lining up well with similar patterns and wave counts and I am trying to get into an early trend, I am attracted to that setup. The 5/17 may cross zero quicker and identify a trigger, or a suggestion the other oscillator crossings may not be far behind.

As a rule of thumb, the higher time frame you are monitoring, the more you might observe the most sensitive 5/17 oscillator for an indication of divergence or crossover because you are looking for an early warning or new trigger idea. When looking at very short time frames one might monitor with just a little more weight added to the 10/70, particularly when trying to stay in a trending pattern because it will not cross zero as quickly.

When you look at the oscillators you might find it advantageous to also cross link the appropriate AGET wave count as it will add insight into that wave structure in conjunction with the oscillator being used.

The crossover is an indication some form of a sequence could be completing itself.

[pj909]

Originally posted by MarcRinehart
I use all three oscillators no matter what the time frame.

By comparing and contrasting all three we are better able to interpret what is going on with the price movements of a stock, commodity, or index.

As a rule of thumb, the higher time frame you are monitoring, the more you might observe the most sensitive 5/17 oscillator for an indication of divergence or crossover because you are looking for an early warning or new trigger idea. When looking at very short time frames one might monitor with just a little more weight added to the 10/70, particularly when trying to stay in a trending pattern because it will not cross zero as quickly.

.

jkeech
Marc couldn't have said this better! In fact I apply this concept to other indicators also. For example I find it very useful to view a fast STO on a longer time frame and a slow one on a shorter period, or MACD, RSI etc. When trading we are looking for clues and no one indicator or study will tell the whole story. There is no holy grail! Best to add as many pieces to the puzzle as you can and manage your risk.

[jkeech]

Thanks Marc,

Could you please assist further with a couple of quick answers on the following?

1) As far as the rules of 90% to 140% oscillator pullback is concerned - should I only ever apply that on a 5,35(and not try to get the 10,70 to fit that criteria)?

2) Back to my original question - I'm still confused re the 10/70. My understanding is that because it is an indication of the strength of the 'bigger players' in the market - if everything else in my setup looks good, but the 10/70 is still showing strength above the strength line for a continuation of the trend rather than a type 1 or type 2 reversal, how much notice do you take of the 10/70. Would this cause you NOT to take the trade evern though the other rules were met?

3) I think it was Marline??? over the phone support area (who speaks very highly of you) who had said given that I use EOD I should not use the 5,17 (that it was just for intra-day traders on very short term charts) and that I should tend to use the 10,70 on a weekly and a 5,35 on a daily - but basically use the oscillator that looked the best fit at the time. Again then I'm confused if you could please set me straight - sorry about that.

[MR]

Here are previous posts on the subject of AGET Oscillators you may want to review for a better answer, click here.

Use the 1.4 rule the same for any oscillator, but like i said earlier, match the corresponding wave count to the corresponding oscillator.

I honestly cannot answer your general #2 question because there could be other variables the enter into this situation. The answer is, yes and no, it depends.

Again, basically what I said earlier, below, is my very best explanation of oscillators and their usage I can think of. Different people use oscillators in different ways. Co-worker Ron Wheeler uses the 5/17 a great deal because it crosses zero quicker than the other oscillators and triggers his trade. I tend to use the 5/35 and 10/70 more because I look mostly for bigger setups and ways to stay in bigger trades. If you have the seminar video tape series I would strongly recommend it as a review because it gives very graphic examples of various oscillators and its functional usages. If you need on, call the office (330) 645-0077 and ask Mike Kreidler about them. They really are the best explanations on the oscillators.