Find and Manage Continuation Trades

[PRH]

Dean

Very interesting comparison. What do you conclude which stochastics and oscillator pullback is best?

Regarding wave 5: it is more comfortable taking a hitch on a wave 3 than on a wave 5, although some wave 5's turn into 3's over time. Oscillator divergence on adjacent time frames would be a tipoff though.

Harndog, Thank you for the suggestion. Will take a look at that.

prh

[marginman]

Would venture to think that %K > 50 and false bar showing is slightly less valuable a confirmation as %K<25 with no false bar.

Why do we need the OSC PB criteria again? .....U know, If we were to replace the OSC pullback with a Fib retarcement of < 62%, we would have something that resembles buying with the trend trade....

Harndog, Yes ADX> 20 would tells us we just been in trading range ahead of breakout..hi volume would also be an excellant confirmation for breakout....will play with it

Regards

[PRH]

Great discussion! Many ideas to test.

Here is a suggestion to expedite and narrow down the searches:
First do a search for Wave 3 Up on Weekly charts. Save all in a portfolio. Then carry out the XTL Cont Up search on that portfolio. That way you are OK with the broccoli.
Same procedure for Wave 3 weekly downtrend and XTL Cont down search.

Philippe

[marginman]

Greetings Again....following up on our discussion, let us review progress of those issues identified from 10/28/03 XTL up continuation scan now 3 trading days later

In review, with just XTL & ATC, 131 out 2247 were identified

A. Add %K>50% & 80%<5/17 OSCPB<100%, 131 filtered down to 17
Out of 17, only 4 had >0.90 Pearson's R: FIC, GYMB, HSII, JCI
None of these 17 issues demonstrate significant momentum.

for example, see FIC , HSII, & JCI




B. when filtering for %K<25 only, 6 issues come up, essentially all with R>0.90

Significantly more momentum is observed with these 6 issues as shown below








What can we deduce from the following test? Does %K<25 with no falsebar predict more reliable momentum or continuation? Does %K<25 override greater than 100% 5/17 OSC PB? Should we even attempt to draw any conclusions from this limited sample size?

Kindest Regards, Dean

[PRH]

Dean,

Great work! It appears that indeed %K<25 allows for upward momentum to pickup more than a %K>50 - it makes sense. We may want to keep an eye on this pattern prospectively.

Here is another observation that I made from the weekend XTL continuation scans over the last month:

Oct 6: 48 UP, 3 DOWN
Oct13: I was gone
Oct17: 8 UP, 27 DOWN
Oct24: 40 UP, 7 DOWN
Oct31: 6 UP, 30 DOWN

When there were more UP's, the market (S&P) went up the next week; when there were more DOWN's, the S&P went down that week. Same observations for the IWM.

Can we use the results of the Continuation XTL scans to anticipate the general market direction for the week that follows, and should we only take signals of the majority? If so, maybe only take down signals this week?

Time will tell and I will post the followup later this week, time permitting.

PRH

[fabrizio]

Dean

IMHO this is a really interesting analysis. Shouldn't bother you I will watch it too...

[marginman]

Fabrizio, By all means look in and chime in as you see fit, it would be our distinct privilige to have you share your vast insights.....


Phillippe....Forgive me but How do I force the scanner to scan close of previous dates....it keeps scanning based on most recent close data....I would like to scan after close of the following dates:

10/3
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31

like u did

Kindest Regards, Dean

[fabrizio]

Dean

I sure will because I seriously believe that yours & Philippe's intuition is really interesting and add a lot to this commmunity .

Thanks for giving us new different perspectives.

[PRH]

Dean:

The scans for the previous weekends:

I saved them at the time as a portfolio and autopaged them into a folder. However, I read somewhere that there is an easy way to scan into the past. Will try to find it again and then post it.

Do you need the scan results for these weekends?

Philippe

[marginman]

Fabrizio, thank you for the kind remarks.......Philippe, the ability to run the scans on any day in the past greatly expedites running backtests....if there is a a way to do it, I would humbly ask the board for how to.....If that capability is not available in the AGET EOD, then we are forced to scan on the same day and save to a portfolio as we have thusfar been doing.....

looking forward to refinements in this analysis...

Kindest Regards, Dean

[marginman]

Greetings...the ability to run the scans on any day in the past greatly expedites running backtests....if there is a a way to do it, I would humbly ask the board for how to.....Again

Kindest Regards

[PRH]

I read somewhere that if you set your computer's date back that the scans will be for that date. I tried that on my laptop (Windows98 2nd ed) and it did not work. You may want give that a try perhaps. I do not know what else could do it, perhaps Marcus can find out?

Philippe

[MR]

To be honest, I haven't done this in years, so I actually forgot this feature... not knowing the absolute answer to question, let me try and see if this helps... go to the end-of-day AGET issue menu, look for the "End Date" selection, change it to a different date. It is my understanding it should load up only to that date? If using Wizard data, you may need to set it to off line mode so it is only readying your historical hard drive data? Again, not a real expert on this subject, but hope this helps somehow? -marc

[georgeace]

Howzit Marcus! I see you have the SA symbol list there.... Nice to see

Take care, George

[MR]

Hi George!

Yes, was testing that end of day SA data you sent me to check out. Nice market you have there my new friend!