Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

Anything from this guy is required reading as well
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11798

[SERGIO.M]

...

[theplumber]

From Sam Zell
http://www.yieldsz.com/

[Anson]

Originally posted by theplumber
From Sam Zell
http://www.yieldsz.com/

That's a very nice version of a classic.

[tolstoy]

Plumber, thank you very much for your interesting thougths on the market. I was wondering what you would consider the most reliable the model for 07 or the cyclical picture for 07.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by tolstoy
Plumber, thank you very much for your interesting thougths on the market. I was wondering what you would consider the most reliable the model for 07 or the cyclical picture for 07.

Below is past models with the actual price data below it. Modelling isn't perfect as the cycles don't exactly repeat but instead rhyme. Something I may want to point out on my outlook for 2007 is this, I said deflation would be the word of the day but it could be inflation instead. I believe interest rates are in a sweet spot right now and any lowering would only prove the economy is weakening but inflation would also weaken further growth, like maybe the second half of 07? Everyone assumes the Fed will lower rates but I see them maybe staying steady and raiseing the second half of 07, which would be bad for equities (above the sweet spot I spoke of). I am making investment decisions based on my cyclical models and look for S&P 1470-1500 in the first quarter of 2007 , a dip to around June then a retest of the highs or maybe a run to 1530 , then a decline into year end and sideways action all of 2008. Next stop after that will be 1700 S&P (2009 0r 2010) IF there is no world war.

[theplumber]

An incredible forecast from Ensigns cyclical map. This was updated this morning about 5 am (6 am New York time) . The power of cycles

[IbEmE]

Hey plumber where are we on your Ensigns cyclical map chart?
Can you post a link to it please.
Thanks, dlp
btw did you see your man Simons on CNBC last week?

[theplumber]

Originally posted by IbEmE
Hey plumber where are we on your Ensigns cyclical map chart?
Can you post a link to it please.
Thanks, dlp
btw did you see your man Simons on CNBC last week?

This is the S&P 500 map. I don't watch CNBC anymore or any news channels for that matter, it's just too much of a distraction. I saw Simons last Christmas. Just an unbelievable money machine he has created. What was it about?

[IbEmE]

Simons interview @ CNBC.com

Here's the link to the interview (video) with Simons.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=176346044&play=1

[xg1]

Market model

Hi Plumber, thank you so much for providing the market models. I wonder if you make them yourself or obtain them from someone else. Are these models made by neural networks? Thanks.

xg

[theplumber]

Re: Market model

Originally posted by xg1
Hi Plumber, thank you so much for providing the market models. I wonder if you make them yourself or obtain them from someone else. Are these models made by neural networks? Thanks.

xg

The model I have for a 2007 forecast is made by me using esignal data downloaded to excel. Nothing but simple cyclical analysis.

[theplumber]

A cyclical update so far this year after almost 1 quarter

[theplumber]

The master model so far , interesting how the high and low cycles matched.

[theplumber]

Something I haven't shown in a long time is the mirror image foldback from March 2003. Cycles repeat , not exact but close enough to make some money knowing the future.