Trading eminis with cycles

[IbEmE]

Updates to post on 12/17/06

Plumber thanks for all the updates.

SERGIO any updates to your post on 12/17/06?, miss your posts.

Looks like the oil market sees trouble in Iran in short order?,
if so where do we go from there?

[SERGIO.M]

$SPX MONTHLY

10 years cycle

[theplumber]

Some time ago I offered to tell a developer about some interesting astro stuff and they blocked my emails. So be it, check out a short term Bradley model as opposed to long term like the one published everywhere

[theplumber]

Re: $SPX MONTHLY

Originally posted by SERGIO.M
10 years cycle

My perspective. Sorry it's so big

[SERGIO.M]

look this setup, what happen tomorrow ? we will see.

[SERGIO.M]

we will see
Have a great weekend

[IbEmE]

Plumber your man made the top 10 (#2)

Good call Sergio on euro/dollar chart


The Trader Monthly 100: The Top 10

Name City Firm Age Est. Income

John Arnold Houston Centaurus Energy 33 $1.5-2B

James Simons East Setaucket, New York Renaissance Technologies Corp. 68 $1.5-$2B

Eddie Lampert Greenwich, Connecticut ESL Investments 44 $1-1.5B

T. Boone Pickens Dallas BP Capital 78 $1B-1.5

Stevie Cohen Stamford, Connecticut SAC Capital Advisors 50 $1B

Stephen Feinberg New York Cerberus Capital 47 $800-900M

Paul Tudor Jones Greenwich, Connecticut Tudor Investment Corp. 53 $700-800M

Bruce Kovner New York Caxton Associates 62 $700-800M

Israel Englander New York Millennium Management 58 $600-700M

David Shaw New York D.E. Shaw & Co. 55 $600-700M

[theplumber]

Sergio I will have more this weekend but look at this foldback to the low in early 2002. I'm finding spectral leakage with traditional cyclical analysis but I will use another technique this weekend

[theplumber]

This is daily Euro using Gann's master time factor (in red) and an inverted Bradley using short terms (in blue)

[theplumber]

For Sergio this is using the data I got from you April 13 . The forecast is 25 weeks into the future from April 13

[SERGIO.M]

ThePlumber, thanks a lot, yes, it's right it works very well, but it would be wonderful if I could have some model, to support my works.

Thanks again

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
Below is past models with the actual price data below it. Modelling isn't perfect as the cycles don't exactly repeat but instead rhyme. Something I may want to point out on my outlook for 2007 is this, I said deflation would be the word of the day but it could be inflation instead. I believe interest rates are in a sweet spot right now and any lowering would only prove the economy is weakening but inflation would also weaken further growth, like maybe the second half of 07? Everyone assumes the Fed will lower rates but I see them maybe staying steady and raiseing the second half of 07, which would be bad for equities (above the sweet spot I spoke of). I am making investment decisions based on my cyclical models and look for S&P 1470-1500 in the first quarter of 2007 , a dip to around June then a retest of the highs or maybe a run to 1530 , then a decline into year end and sideways action all of 2008. Next stop after that will be 1700 S&P (2009 0r 2010) IF there is no world war.

This is the updated model, again it almost perfectly inverts. Been trading since 1998, first with stocks then to etf's and then early 2002 futures and this has been so far my best year ever. Don't care if the markets go up or down , just be volatile. Will start posting more sometime around year end.

[micman2]

where I can find the Bradley indicator?


thanks

[theplumber]

Originally posted by micman2
where I can find the Bradley indicator?


thanks

The one I have posted is from here http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/
which can use Esignal data

[theplumber]

Forecast 2008

Looking back at all the forecasts I've done I see one common thread, an upward bias. I attribute this to the enormous amount of money being created vs the past . This money has to go somewhere and I think we are in an age where one bubble creates a solution that in turn creates another bubble in another asset class. I thought this year would end in the red, I was wrong. Volitility did rise and the S&P could have turned red for the year but I forgot to respect the amount of money that can chase the markets. Something I found interesting was a conversation with a hedge fund trader who said Paulson knows the system inside and out and knows how to support one asset class, the stock market. It's his background. Ranting aside I'll get to 2008. Below is the model, a dip in the first quarter (recession? I don't know but the market is a discounting mechanism) and then a slow upward bias the rest of the year. I think both bulls and bears get frustrated this year and next, not down but not up much either. Happy 2008 and happy trading Esignal.