Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

Some interesting comparisons. I just know the Pesavento map is cycle based, but am unsure only b/c it has a touch of statistical analysis as well.

[theplumber]

Another before and after

The left side is the update from last Friday and the right is todays update. Amazing is all I can say. I've found the best results with the Pesavento map using the 5 minute time frame, least results with larger than 10 and less than 3 minute time frames as well. Daily and weekly's are in a set all their own. Anyone else use this tool?

[theplumber]

The Wave59 software also use cycles, astro cycles based on the birth of an exchange (in this case the S&P 500 based in Chicago) and price cycles. The price cycles look for exhaustion points in price. As in all cycle work I've done the 5 minute time frame is the best and last Friday started the 1 for a 9 count cycle with a following 5 to come. The gold 5 marked the top this morning. The 1 minute hit multiple cycles. The 9-5 count is a full cycle count together, so the 1 minute hit 2 consecutive 9-5 cycles to the mornings highs. I use this as price targets for larger positions.

[theplumber]

The cyclepack

[theplumber]

The top is the updated models and the one below is the one posted Sunday in the Fibo&Geometry thread. The settings are almost the same as the 5 minute chart settings except I have the XT price pane with the smaller 512 data window. The red model with the Welch windowing function seems a little more robust, calling for a rise today based on the Sunday chart and will watch closely the decline cycle for Thursday and Friday of this week Aug 19 and 20. It extends into next tuesday the 24th but as I said before Esignal charts don't exclude weekends so I'll see how it behaves before coming to any ideas of just subtracting weekends from the date turns.

[theplumber]

Even though this isn't 100% cycles, I agree with only one style of Elliot Wave, NeoWave from Glenn Neeley. I agree with his pattern he shows. I think last Friday was one in a series of cycle lows , enough so that traders will pump prices to the next cycle top at the end of the month perhaps. Maybe not that high but enough to give a false "coast is clear" signal before a lower low coming.

[FibbGann]

Very nice theplumber!

I agree with this scenario and this is what I have been looking at.
Just not in the detailed way they have it.

I like to keep it simple.

Fibbgann

[tedk]

Originally posted by theplumber
Even though this isn't 100% cycles, I agree with only one style of Elliot Wave, NeoWave from Glenn Neeley. I agree with his pattern he shows. I think last Friday was one in a series of cycle lows , enough so that traders will pump prices to the next cycle top at the end of the month perhaps. Maybe not that high but enough to give a false "coast is clear" signal before a lower low coming.

I'm curious, did you read his book?

[theplumber]

Originally posted by FibbGann
Very nice theplumber!

I agree with this scenario and this is what I have been looking at.
Just not in the detailed way they have it.

I like to keep it simple.

Fibbgann

Thanks, but I'm curious , you've never stated or shown you use cycles. Do you or have you? Hurst? Gann divisions of the circle cycles? MESA?

[theplumber]

Originally posted by tedk
I'm curious, did you read his book?

Yes I have it . Very detailed stuff with many complex structures not seen anywhere else. While Prechter and Hochberg had people short every little rise from the Oct 10 2002 low Neely had a parabolic rise into the new year of 2004. NeoWave seems to keep opinion down to a minimum and more emphasis on analysis.

[tedk]

Originally posted by theplumber
Yes I have it . Very detailed stuff with many complex structures not seen anywhere else. While Prechter and Hochberg had people short every little rise from the Oct 10 2002 low Neely had a parabolic rise into the new year of 2004. NeoWave seems to keep opinion down to a minimum and more emphasis on analysis.

I read the book too. Solid stuff. Chapter 3 almost reads as a programming manual.
I have seen Prechter wrong at earlier major turns.
My EW rating:1-Neely, 2-Zoran, 3-Prechter

[FibbGann]

Originally posted by theplumber
Thanks, but I'm curious , you've never stated or shown you use cycles. Do you or have you? Hurst? Gann divisions of the circle cycles? MESA?

That would be a negative, I have read about them, but never had to use them personally. I have a very simple and succesful process, and they say "If its not broken, don't fix it."

Fibbgann

[afleming]

Thanks to the Plumber for starting this thread,

I have been using the cycle pack for a few months now and every day you can learn something new. I have read Hursts books on cyclic analysis and this really brought everything together.

I use the Cycle analyzer and XT exclusively along with nested envelopes on 4,8 and 20 minute charts trading ES and Euro Futures. The Cycle analyzer I keep on the defaut settings but have modified the standard settings on XT by increasing the data window to 512 and decreasing the the max cycle length to 60. I believe Chris was quite conservative with how he set the default look forward period. I have found that if a forcast is working well then it is better to increase the look forward period than it is to re anchor the projector.

It can also be handy to combine these forcasts with price/time clusters if you have software that can do this.

Cheers,

Alex

[theplumber]

Originally posted by FibbGann
That would be a negative, I have read about them, but never had to use them personally. I have a very simple and succesful process, and they say "If its not broken, don't fix it."

Fibbgann

I hear ya, 1000 ways to skin a cat , each person just has to figure out what works for them and milk it. All about making money in the end. Cycles may seem complex to trade but it works for me

[theplumber]

Originally posted by afleming
Thanks to the Plumber for starting this thread,

I have been using the cycle pack for a few months now and every day you can learn something new. I have read Hursts books on cyclic analysis and this really brought everything together.

I use the Cycle analyzer and XT exclusively along with nested envelopes on 4,8 and 20 minute charts trading ES and Euro Futures. The Cycle analyzer I keep on the defaut settings but have modified the standard settings on XT by increasing the data window to 512 and decreasing the the max cycle length to 60. I believe Chris was quite conservative with how he set the default look forward period. I have found that if a forcast is working well then it is better to increase the look forward period than it is to re anchor the projector.

It can also be handy to combine these forcasts with price/time clusters if you have software that can do this.

Cheers,

Alex

Ever worked with the windowing functions? What about using a different persistence filter?