Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

Re: backtesting

Originally posted by SERGIO.M
I think it gave a good result, I will keep on my research.

Looks really good. I might need to start looking back into FOREX trading again. Have you made a plain Projector model? I don't know the specifics on the XT calculations but the Projector is a direct extension of the cycles in the Analyzer, but with more tools.

[theplumber]

One more reason to always look at the raw cycles and model from those raw cycles, the projector at the bottom. Seems a buying opportunity is fast approaching. Either late today or early Friday. Alot of rumors swirling around.

[theplumber]

Price may snagnate into the close but the cycles are close to being hit for a buy and the screenshot below shows the buyers (maybe covers, who knows but buyers just the same) are coming out.

[theplumber]

Wrong week for me to cut back on my caffeine intake, should have looked at the INDU model as well as the S&P.

[theplumber]

Yes I will definately have to watch the INDU next to my ES 30 minute model. This is a weekly model of $INDU.

[theplumber]

Some observations of the days trading

[theplumber]

I chopped off the end of the days model, didn't want to make anyone TOO much money. Maybe no one pays attention to my charts anyways

[its1111]

Hi Plumber

For what it's worth, I always look forward to your threads and appreciate everything you throw out.
I am going to give Market Delta a try and was wondering basically which screens have given you the best information, they offer quite a few different ways to view the market.

I am also going to be getting a squawk box and was wondering if you use one, which one and if you did any research on them or if basically they are all the same.
Thanks for the help.
Mark

[theplumber]

Originally posted by its1111
Hi Plumber

For what it's worth, I always look forward to your threads and appreciate everything you throw out.
I am going to give Market Delta a try and was wondering basically which screens have given you the best information, they offer quite a few different ways to view the market.

I am also going to be getting a squawk box and was wondering if you use one, which one and if you did any research on them or if basically they are all the same.
Thanks for the help.
Mark

You and many would be surprised as to how simple my trading is. One quote from J. Simons "....and the traders never deviate from the models.." I have maybe 6 models I have each and every day. I start the day to trade and make money, if I don't then it's not the markets fault, it's mine. Most of the time all the models will agree, this makes my life VERY easy. Now all I gotta do is enter the trade. This is where tape reading comes into play. Riddle me this, can you just use an order entry like DOME to trade? I can and many others can, we see the turning in the supply/demand equilibrium. MarketDelta helps with this. Once I know a turn is coming based on models I look for the tape, and the buying/selling will show IF you look for it. Tape reading is hard to describe over the internet, shrink all there is into a paragraph or less. If you stood next to me and we watched with me pointing out whats happening you would understand in 5 minutes or less. But I have no desire to tutor people so these charts will have to do. This is just one trade, one of many for me but was a good trade based on the high probability of the cycle move to make some good money. There is usually one easy trade a day, and this was it below.

As for the squawk box, I find it a distraction if anything else. That's just me, others will say they can't trade without it.

[SERGIO.M]

........you will have to spend a day finding the right setting......


if only it were true


Your suggestions were precious, but I don't trust my setting yet

[theplumber]

Well let me tell you about my rough day. This is why I mess around with both the Projector and the XT, as you can see on the right side 30 minute chart. I was questioning everything about it all day Monday ( "this can't be right, a down day for Tuesday with the futes up 3 now " I was saying late Monday watching the ball game) but the confidence will grow on you as you see the cycles working, it just takes time. So the market gaps up and then dives. In fact this is the very reason I don't post on any other message boards or even view them because they will rot your brain. I have learned to trust my own work (it's my money at risk so I'm the only one to blame right?) and you will too. You have the right tool (s) for the job, you just need time to gain confidence in using them. Sometimes they can seem so unrealistic it's not funny but the only advice I can give is to use both models, the Projector and the XT, and if you use only daily time frame then also use a 60 and 30 minute time frame as well. Maybe a half day time frame as well (I don't know how to divide the hours for FOREX because they are 24 hours) but about 3 different time frames. The best has always been a weekly for me trading ES, it smooths out the noise, when I'm in doubt.

One more heads up on this point in time right now. All markets are crazy because of one MAJOR rumor, derivatives. Rumors are swirling of a major dealer firing their head of derivative trading, and if anyone recalls the crash in 1998 it was all about derivatives then as well. Except now it's about 1000 times bigger, they were just experimenting then. The head of the class is FNM but not far behind are the insurance companies (like the ones in the news right NOW) . Add dealer risk and this gets everyones ears up. In fact if anyone has read this book http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...450154-8264019 you'll read about people sniffing around for others in trouble, and then "line up" (Wall Street can be a sick, cut throat culture but that's how the game is played) to put them out of business. This chatter has been around since last summer (June it was making the rounds about FNM) but this time of year can bring a trick or a treat. All I'm saying is be careful, the markets may not be easy to trade right now.

[its1111]

Thanks for the help on the Market Delta, I just signed up today and look forward to using them, so we will see how it goes. I appreciate the time and energy you put into showing the diagrams, they look great.
I had a good day trading in the market today but my cycles were sure not hitting right.
They can be soooo good sometimes and then just when you start to trust them they throw you for a loop. even though I use them as a confirming device, I just want them to work!
I am going to stop using the cycle MA bands as they change on there own after they are wrong, then refit themselves right, maybe I am doing something wrong but I have put quite a bit of time into them. I'll just stick with the projector and XT.
You have mentioned updating the bands and anchoring them. Do you do this everymorning?
I am not sure how to anchor them and any advice would help.
It seems like they have been working good just the way they are, but today sure makes wonder. I will go back to the drawing board and refigure them.
Anyway thanks for all the help.
Mark

[theplumber]

Originally posted by its1111
Thanks for the help on the Market Delta, I just signed up today and look forward to using them, so we will see how it goes. I appreciate the time and energy you put into showing the diagrams, they look great.
I had a good day trading in the market today but my cycles were sure not hitting right.
They can be soooo good sometimes and then just when you start to trust them they throw you for a loop. even though I use them as a confirming device, I just want them to work!
I am going to stop using the cycle MA bands as they change on there own after they are wrong, then refit themselves right, maybe I am doing something wrong but I have put quite a bit of time into them. I'll just stick with the projector and XT.
You have mentioned updating the bands and anchoring them. Do you do this everymorning?
I am not sure how to anchor them and any advice would help.
It seems like they have been working good just the way they are, but today sure makes wonder. I will go back to the drawing board and refigure them.
Anyway thanks for all the help.
Mark

I'll be honest, from what you just said you may not be ready for MarketDelta. MarketDelta is really for a more seasoned trader who has traded for years reading the tape and looked for something in a chart that could show what was happening in the tape itself. Indicators are based on the past, tape readers live in the present.

There's a statement on the Divergence website that says "Advanced software for sophisticated traders" and the cycle pack and MarketDelta fall under this umbrella. They are not for everyone, they are for a more seasoned trader who has already used something like what is comercially avalible now. In fact these tools have been made by Hedge Funds for 20-30 years now. RENTEC has used cycles for 20 years or so to be the best of the best, and every daytrading hedgie I know has specially made software like MarketDelta made custom for them the last 10. There's nothing new under the sun.

I never use the MAbands intraday. I haven't since the first day I got them, it's a different calculation, check out the help section as to what you are using. I never mentioned updating or anchoring the bands because you can't, you can only do this with the Projector and the XT. As for settings, I've laid out all the settings I use already for the Projector and XT intraday and larger time frames, you will have to go through what I've already shown from the begining, it's all there.

[theplumber]

This is how I trade cycles matched with tape reading

The cycle XT model was updated after the first bar was completed because of the gap down.

[theplumber]

This ones even better, it's anchored from the last trade Tuesday, along with the 30 minute I use for a weekly forecast on the right.