Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

FWIW (and definately NOT trading advice when shorting) I'm short 50 @ 1168 and look to get shorter Monday with a stop @ 1180. A good astro cycle Monday Nov 8.

[theplumber]

The most respected economic model in my opinion is from ECRI and this is what they said today

NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - A leading index of the U.S. economy rose in the latest week due to stronger stock prices and mortage applications, but the rise was partly offset by lower growth in industrial prices, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to 132.0 in the week ended Oct. 29 compared with 130.4 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, narrowed to -1.4 percent from -1.5 in the prior week.

"Despite today's strong job report the index is telling us there remains no clear signs of a reacceleration to strong growth like we saw at the beginning of the year," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

Watch the dollar, if there is a crash in the dollar it will bring down everything with it, at least to reality. BUT the weekly cycles still point up into mid 2005.

[theplumber]

Someone pointed out this chart I posted a while back . Of course my opinion is wrong on the chart (what's new ) but the model is impressive. The low identified as Sept was actually mid Oct if weekends are excluded.

[theplumber]

Dips were bought today despite dealers selling this morning. Feels like the calm before the storm so I'm not taking any chances and moving my stop to break even (1168) and won't be adding until any break comes. I may wait until the bigger cycle next week (should have anyways I guess) . This chart is interesting, the $SPX / $DXC , almost all time highs with the depreciating dollar. Check out the cycle forecast, Jan 2 2004 is the anchor date. Not a bad forecast for the year.

[FibbGann]

Frustrating day for ES trades for sure, thats why I jumped back to trading stocks today. Don't give up so easily there Plumber, they're trying to sike you out. I am using the 1172 mark, looks bullish though on a day like today? The big guys always love to eat your stops just for sheets and giggles.

If not were looking at a 1-2-3- continuation.

hehe

Nice work keep it up!

[theplumber]

Oh well stopped myself out @1167. I went by the model for the day and will continue until next week. Corporates are being bought like no tomorrow and the treasury auctions are holding back equities right now. The rotation into internets after the insurance scandals is being unwound (this info is the difference between on the inside and looking around and on the outside and not having a clue) so the underlying bid in the market is real. I will say this though, many of my contacts watched this morning the 5 mil QQQ buy with great interest, it was absorbed better than thought so there is supply. Unfortunatly my risk profile says to sit till next week. All is not so bad, 12 hours of Halo2 so far

[theplumber]

Rumors abound again. When the tape was down it was derivitive blow up, now its 16,000 futes being bought into Friday's close because of MSFT dividend next week. Amazing how the news hits with the cycles. Nov 17 looks about right for a fresh try at shorting.

[Aggie549]

Hmmn?

Where did you get the forecasting line with arrows? Quite interesting!

[theplumber]

Re: Hmmn?

Originally posted by Aggie549
Where did you get the forecasting line with arrows? Quite interesting!

http://www.sr-analyst.com/cyclePack.htm

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
Just an observation. A while back I stated a major cycle Nov 16-17 and last week showed some smaller astro cycles Nov 4-7. What I look for is multiple cycle analysis to confirm each other and they do with Nov 15-16. This same cycle work indicated the years low late August/early Sept and also indicates a high Nov 15-16 time frame. Should be interesting as it approaches. If this time frame is a low instead then S&P 1200 by year end is reasonable, if it's a low then 990 by Jan 2005 is the target.

Love it when a plan comes together. Tops are processes so a retest could come but I'll go out on a limb and say I "think" the high for the year is in.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
Rumors abound again. When the tape was down it was derivitive blow up, now its 16,000 futes being bought into Friday's close because of MSFT dividend next week. Amazing how the news hits with the cycles. Nov 17 looks about right for a fresh try at shorting.

Well Nov 17 has come and gone. I would have posted in realtime after the execution but both the data and website was down, the very possibility for a back up data provider. I had a standing order to short 1190 but missed the top by .25 so went 50 @ 1189 short. My stop will be 1200, which is when massive negative gamma would kick in. Interesting from John Succo " We believe an Asian central bank, or combination of them, has bought around $12 billion in US treasuries today. This makes it close to a trillion in US debt so far, watch the dollar/yen trade."

[BakedWafer]

Hey, using cycle pack how do you get the projector directly on your screen like that as opposed to being in a seperate box?

Regards

[DuaneG]

BakedWafer,

You can place the Cycle Projector directly on top of the price action by holding the SHIFT key down and dragging the study on top of the price pane.

You may want to read the Merging Studies portion of the following article from our Knowledge Base.

[theplumber]

10 hours of plane ride, flip open the laptop and internet connect to a nice profit, always nice

What could be of interest to you BakedWafer (how you came up with that username I don't think I want to know) is this 30 minute projection, which I use as a forecast for the entire week. This helped in timing my short, and timing was everything this week. It's anchored from last Fridays closing price and only mess with it when it is REALLY wrong, which has been a function of me (lack of education and using the right settings) and not the software. I'll have more to say maybe Sunday with a projection to ending this short. Why is it when I'm in a position I'm never long or short enough?

[BakedWafer]

Well, well. Everyone ask that question, where the name came from. Well it's a triscuit, it's a Baked Wafer, right on the box.

I was just looking over some of your stuff in this thread, playing around with cycle, figured I see what's up.