Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

Originally posted by jbc7
Whichever cycle wins, I'll still be playing Halo. I agree, this is a great game. I dont have xbox but the pc plays it well. I wonder if they'll have Halo 2 on the pc also? If not I guess I'll have to get an Xbox!

Btw, thepumber, do you also swing trade the ES ?

Yes but alot less size and alot more carefull also, I really hate getting stopped out. In fact <50% of my 2003 income was from swing trading, but on only 3 actual trades. Problem is I love the price action so I daytrade.

Today really sucks for followthrough on the models. Case where cycles work at their best when there are more market participants.

[theplumber]

I do hold back some on what I use to trade with, sorry. This is one chart that has been, hmmm how should I say, excellent. The 60 minute with a little somin somin. The purple color is the forecast and look at the green arrow, the hour of that big green candle.

[theplumber]

Spoke too soon on these models. Today was actually a typical day. Notice the models don't fit exactly BUT this is really what you want. Price action will always be king but knowing if a swing is coming helps look a little closer at the tape for confirmation, then hitting it.

[ritchie12]

First post here, hope it works!
Nasdaq 100 chart.
Thanks for sharing your charts plumber

[theplumber]

Originally posted by ritchie12
First post here, hope it works!
Nasdaq 100 chart.
Thanks for sharing your charts plumber

ABOUT DAM TIME

Another cycle addict, you trade NDX? Intraday or swing?

[theplumber]

This price action is typical of the 80 week cycle bottom. I injected my opinion into the assesment of it bottoming when the model said so back in July, my loss. Even though I've been long alot more than short I still think "what could have been" (that beach house in Hawaii) if I had just trusted the weekly model. There's still one more cycle down left but I think it will only retest the low made in August.

[theplumber]

This is the reason for having 2 models and using the welch function in the projector. They went in different directions all the sudden, don't know why but am looking into it.

[theplumber]

An updated 60 minute.

[ritchie12]

Originally posted by theplumber
ABOUT DAM TIME

Another cycle addict, you trade NDX? Intraday or swing?

I swing trade qqq & spy usually. Here is a chart of the oex, with the oex/vxo ratio. This year, this ratio has been between 25 to 40.

[theplumber]

Some observation on Friday. The Pesavento map was updated 10 minutes before the employment number came out and nailed the rise and fall after, the update time is in the upper left corner. The stats shows some interesting possibilities for next week and the 300T chart shows some nice trends for ES. I got my hands on some Tradestation code for some good volume studies I'll be trying to convert to efs, if anyone has any advice I'd sure like to hear it. They aren't that big in size.

[theplumber]

The VIX is maybe the most reliable indicator of fear out there. The top is the backtest cycles with the top one the XT and bottom one with the stochastic is the welch projector. Nails it pretty good. The bottom is the updated models, they are different this time so it will be worth watching.

[ritchie12]

vxo getting near a bottom?

[theplumber]

Ensign has a ratio and spread function to it's charts that looks better. This is $INDU in yellow and the $INDU/$VIX ratio in blue. For the record I'm bullish until summer 2005 but after looking at this chart I can only scratch and shake my head wondering if this isn't telling me something. I met this guy a while back http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ and his edge for his fund is the unknown extremes in volitility. Someone I know and talk to every day runs a hedge fund and makes these same kind of bets, betting the unknown is right around the corner and vol will explode. It seems counterintuitive to be trying for the home run instead of batting for percentage but they do that as well during the dry times. Well according to this chart the dry times are here and event risk is not being priced in. Thanks Richie for bringing the ratio to my attention.

The bottom chart is a daily with the ratio

[theplumber]

This is Wave59 version of cycles. Bottoms Sept 13 and I have multiple tools that say the same time frame

[IbEmE]

Cycles according to Walter Bressert

Cycles according to Walter Bressert.
Here's his cycles update:

http://www.walterbressert.com/PAGES/...804/082804.cfm