Trading eminis with cycles

[Anson]

Re: astro forecasts

[i]Originally posted by jbc7


Anybody else using the Cyclepack? I'm still waiting for the monthly subscription. esignal said 7.7 should be out by next week. we'll see. [/B]

Jbc7,

I'm also waiting for eSignal 7.7 so that I can try Cyclepack out on the monthly subscription plan. Unfortunately, DuaneG has mentioned that the release has been delayed a few weeks.

For the time being, I'll have to pore over theplumber's charts!

[theplumber]

Re: astro forecasts

Originally posted by jbc7
Ok, I'm just beginning to have an interest in astro. Found these links:

http://www.alphee.com/Forecast_Territory/bill_foster_forecast.htm

http://www.alphee.com/modules/Subjects/pages/Alphee/dow_jones_projection_summer_2004.htm

Anybody using Air software and recommend it?
Theplumber, what's your opinion on Bill Meridian's book; is it helpful?

Anybody else using the Cyclepack? I'm still waiting for the monthly subscription. esignal said 7.7 should be out by next week. we'll see.

For some reason I never understood why Sergey updated his AIR model in June and still like the original model below. As a trader it would make sense to frustrate the masses, so a trading range within a trading range would actually make sense. The huge cycles that hit in August (56 or 59 year depending on who you talk to) are reflected in the model done last December. Then coming out of that huge cycle skews the rest of the down pressure the next smaller cycles have. This is where the issue of lack of historical data to test this using the cyclepack becomes an known. If I could import historical data I could confirm the AIR original model with the cyclepack. I liked these books http://www.profitableforecasting.com/ (this ones expensive but worth it) and any of these http://www.mmacycles.com/books.htm
. The main problem with astro is conjecture in astrology. Kind of like who would do better as a trader, an economist or a psychology major? One example of idiot economists trying to run a hedge fund is here http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worl.../21/2003199652 so astrologers don't make good traders. Take a scientific approach using statistical analysis, that's what AIR does. Doubt anyone here has AIR because of the cost. It is worth it .

[Anson]

theplumber,

Thanks for the post... looks interesting!
I have a question I hope you can help me with.

Are the Bronze and Silver editions of the AIR software sufficient for analysis or do you feel that one needs to go for at least the Gold version?

And do you know if they offer rebates later if one chooses to upgrade from say the Silver to the Gold edition?

Thanks for the time!

[theplumber]

Originally posted by Anson
theplumber,

Thanks for the post... looks interesting!
I have a question I hope you can help me with.

Are the Bronze and Silver editions of the AIR software sufficient for analysis or do you feel that one needs to go for at least the Gold version?

And do you know if they offer rebates later if one chooses to upgrade from say the Silver to the Gold edition?

Thanks for the time!

AIR is a touchy subject when making recommendations. This is maybe the worst user friendly software on the market today so most are highly disapointed b/c of this fact alone. I would start with the basic education first, then the cheapest module. I have no idea as to upgradability, I bought the 3K from the start. You would have to email them. Galactic trader is a good start as well, uses Esignal data. Have you tried it? They offer a free trial.

[theplumber]

I know it's still early but looks great so far with the 5 minute

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
I know it's still early but looks great so far with the 5 minute

Still looking good so far. The coming drop (?) seems implausible when taking into consideration the traders I talked to today saying that shorts are scared and quarter end will keep the S&P up into month end at least. We'll see what happens

[theplumber]

Forgot one model ,the Welch window function. I guess a good alternate.

[jbc7]

Thanks, theplumber for your suggesions on books.
It's interesting that eSignal cannot import data from other sources, like ascii files. I know Ensign and Metastock can do that. Maybe esignal will add this feature someday...

[theplumber]

Nice little dip after all

[theplumber]

Something I noticed today was the 2 different models for the cash index and the eminis (cash above and eminis below in the chart). Also I noticed the best model was actually the analyzer. Learn something new every day I guess.

[theplumber]

Well I was given this MB about 6 months ago (don't remember) but now it's been released to the general public. Go here to buy

http://www.iwillstore.com/product.asp?pf_id=MADK8N&dept_id=21

and here is a review http://www.burningissues.net/hard/DK8N_review/index.htm
didn't someone say they wanted NUMA enabled MB? Not that big a deal from my experiences with this board.

[jbc7]

Man, that's a mean looking mb. Wonder how it runs Doom3.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by jbc7
Man, that's a mean looking mb. Wonder how it runs Doom3.

I'm a Halo/X-box addict myself, can't wait for Halo 2 coming. Go to this url http://www.xbox.com/en-us/halo2/defa...1&level3=halo2 and hit the videos, I like the ES2 2003 trailer myself. Once you've played Halo, no other game compares. Some of the best traders I know are gamers and bartenders

[theplumber]

Still wondering what cycle data window will win. The daily with 1024 has a big drop coming and the 512 has the bottom in with only a retest at best. The weekly has the bottom in with only a retest (maybe but not likely). Statistically, the only other time during an election year that the yearly low came this late in the year (August) there was a huge downdraft in November, after the election of 1920. The only other election year comparable to this year is 1984, with the low coming in July of that year. Reagan still won but the market recovered nicely up to the election. Soooo, in order for Bush2 to win the market has to #1 not make a new low between now and the election and #2 challenge the highs for the year going into the election. This actually fits the 512 daily and weekly models. Add to that no one believes this latest rally and this market "could" challenge the yearly highs just before the election. All this won't be settled until after the Labor Day holiday though. Statistically the last day of August is up (75% chance, which is huge) and the first few trading days of Sept have historically been positively skewed. This brings up what happens after Sept 6 a huge tell as to not just the market but also the election. Stay tuned, I think the best trading days of the year are just ahead.

Shown is the daily 512 data window and the weekly below. The weekly has been the best model. I've said this before and anyone working with cycles will say the same.

[jbc7]

Whichever cycle wins, I'll still be playing Halo. I agree, this is a great game. I dont have xbox but the pc plays it well. I wonder if they'll have Halo 2 on the pc also? If not I guess I'll have to get an Xbox!

Btw, thepumber, do you also swing trade the ES ?