Trading eminis with cycles

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
2 possible cyclical models for 2006. Just keep in mind forecasting a model for the whole year is kind of hard but we'll see anyways.

Looks like model #2 has been the better one so far and have been playing with shorts because the red line is todays market. Maybe nothing, maybe something, who knows

[Anson]

Originally posted by theplumber
Looks like model #2 has been the better one so far and have been playing with shorts because the red line is todays market. Maybe nothing, maybe something, who knows

Hey plumber,

Been a long time since your last post. Been busy?

Appreciate the update and I hope you're right! I'm short too.

Looks like your cycle projection is for a Bottom in late April?

[theplumber]

The right is the Dow forecasted last week of 2005 for 2006, looks about right. The left is Naz Comp with a look back to 1995 daily not weekly (Esignal needs to have a larger data base).

[luvette]

where can one find Bradley Heliocentric turning points for 2006 they seem very interesting.

Peter

[buhrmaster]

Google: http://www.google.com/search?lr=&ie=...rning%20points

First Item Returned: http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley-com.htm

Caveat Emptor.

[theplumber]

Went long today for a trade.

[theplumber]

Will stay long until stopped out. Needless to say I think the end of low volatility is over and larger price swings in both directions should be a traders paradise.

[theplumber]

Interesting pattern using just money flow and 60 or 30 minute charts, always shows weakness or strength before price . Also interesting read http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/200...gefundmanagers

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
Went long today for a trade.

Stopped out a while ago at breakeven. Shouldn't fight the cycles, look to go long next week

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
2 possible cyclical models for 2006. Just keep in mind forecasting a model for the whole year is kind of hard but we'll see anyways.

The 2 models averaged together

[IbEmE]

theplumber's last chart "The 2 models averaged together"

So where are we right now on your chart "right shoulder"?
Is it possible to repost with price and time scales?

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley-com.htm

Thanks

[theplumber]

Re: theplumber's last chart "The 2 models averaged together"

Originally posted by IbEmE
So where are we right now on your chart "right shoulder"?
Is it possible to repost with price and time scales?

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley-com.htm

Thanks

Sorry for not getting back to anyone who PM's or responds to these post's , been real busy. The lighter is the combined models and the darker is this year so far, as of July 3

[theplumber]

Re: theplumber's last chart "The 2 models averaged together"

Originally posted by IbEmE
So where are we right now on your chart "right shoulder"?
Is it possible to repost with price and time scales?

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley-com.htm

Thanks

With all due respect for Bradley the bigger picture is what this cyclical bull is all about. I've posted in the past the 3 peaks and a doomed house, this is the big picture. I believe the S&P has topped and but others don't because of price projections of 1365 and late summer time frame haven't been met yet. This is what I see, a top, and will be there to buy it when it bottoms because this will be the best buy since Aug 2003.

[Doji3333]

Questions for the plumber..

Hey Plumber...

Do you day trade or position trade? It looks like a possible combination of both?

So you're saying we should see a pretty huge sell-off over the next x months?? Any idea of the length of this sell-off in time - or can you just gauge by the price target?

It also looks like you are deploying many different strategies in your analysis.. I've been working on developing a system that is fully automated for my needs. I would like something that does not trade alot and something that tends to stay with the direction of the market.. I have something that looks interesting and backtests well. I've recently built it into an automated trading system and am testing it...

Enough about my objectives.. I'm kinda interested in how you use these unique indicators to trade?? Obviously, you appear to be trading the longer term trends - no?

[theplumber]

Re: Questions for the plumber..

Originally posted by Doji3333
Hey Plumber...

Do you day trade or position trade? It looks like a possible combination of both?

So you're saying we should see a pretty huge sell-off over the next x months?? Any idea of the length of this sell-off in time - or can you just gauge by the price target?

It also looks like you are deploying many different strategies in your analysis.. I've been working on developing a system that is fully automated for my needs. I would like something that does not trade alot and something that tends to stay with the direction of the market.. I have something that looks interesting and backtests well. I've recently built it into an automated trading system and am testing it...

Enough about my objectives.. I'm kinda interested in how you use these unique indicators to trade?? Obviously, you appear to be trading the longer term trends - no?

I do both with different accounts for reasons I don't care to discuss other than saying they are totally different styles because moving 1000 ES eminis is much more absolute than moving 50 contracts for a flip.

What am I looking for, will get back to you with a chart but will say the decent will be slow and sloppy with a time frame of late 06 or early 07 and price point of high 900's for S&P. I believe the lowest low in our lifetime is 768 and in our lifetime S&P 2500 will be seen.

As for automated systems, boy that's a hot topic right now with Hedge funds. Jim Simons is killing every manager out there with models for the markets. So a function of this is everyone uses models . This isn't 1987 so does anyone really think PTJ really still uses EW? No, models. Check out and research this guys work, RenTec exploded when Simons and this guy worked together http://math.berkeley.edu/~berlek/index.html
I don't use systems because the market changes too often with the cycles, course that's just me and my own control issues as I've been told. All the best making one consistently profitable.

My day trading is 100% bid/ask volume analysis. An example is from here

I also use Market delta, a great piece of software. Maybe the best intraday cyclical model for the money is Ensigns with an example here. I'll post some more later