Trading eminis with cycles

[IbEmE]

To a Happy and Prosperous New Year

It put a smile on my face this morning while checking my mail, the threads not dead!

Thanks for posting plumber, hopefully you, sergio and many others will help this to be a profitable year for us all.

Happy New Year everyone and God bless.

[SERGIO.M]

Re: To a Happy and Prosperous New Year

Originally posted by IbEmE
It put a smile on my face this morning while checking my mail, the threads not dead!

Thanks for posting plumber, hopefully you, sergio and many others will help this to be a profitable year for us all.

Happy New Year everyone and God bless.

Happy New Hear everyone!!!!

[theplumber]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/01/07/ccview107.xml

[SERGIO.M]

es weekly

support......

[IbEmE]

Hi Sergio,
Whats significant about the 9347 level that is highlighted in orange?

[IbEmE]

Fitch Downgrades 420 ABS Bonds

Fitch Downgrades 420 ABS Bonds

From MarketWatch: Fitch Downgrades 420 ABS Bonds Following Ambac Rating Downgrade; Watch Negative (hat tip Risk Capital)

Fitch Ratings downgrades 420 classes of asset-backed securities (ABS) Additionally, the ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative by Fitch. This action follows Fitch's downgrade of the ratings on Ambac ...

Check out the ABS list at MarketWatch: aircraft transactions, student loan bonds, auto loans - the impact from a bond insurer downgrade is widespread.

[theplumber]

Just some random thoughts. I'm have no training in economics so take what I say as meaning nothing. First off, I believe the derivitives markets are so big they don't fall/fail.All you have to do is stop the panic and keep feeding the beast. Eventually the whole world will be on the edge and all governments will get together and write it all off in a world wide agreement. Monitize all debt or something like that. I believe we are watching a slow moving panic. After all is said and done the S&P 500 will bottom around 1225-1250 area . THAT will be the 4 year low and the recovery will be weak but the low will be in. What I believe will happen is major banks will consolidate (as well as the little ones) , a major home builder will go under, and there will be no recession. By the time the rebate checks are suppose to go out I think they will maybe be stopped because "they" reacted to a panic and not any real event. The credit beast will survive and grow twice what it is now. When that time comes the USA will start the begining of the end and China will be the new top dog.Gas prices will be $5 a gallon before anyone really takes action. At $100 a barrel (42 gallon petro gallon) it equals out to 7 pennies a cup, I just paid $5 for 16oz a beer at the Pats game or $2.50 a cup. Push that up to a quater a cup and you have $300 a barrel oil and at least double current gas price. World wide demand IS there and product in declining. Even at .25 cents a cup it's still cheap. The Dems will win the White House and be given all this mess, be blamed for it in propaganda political games and the Repub's will win it back. Guess I could go on and on but have to go for now. Sorry Esignal for venting.

[theplumber]

Bot 250 ES @ the close Friday. I would like to expand this to around 2000 over the next 2 days leading up to the Fed meeting. Stop @ 1275 .

[SERGIO.M]

this is not ES but i think interesting chart, i hope I don't miss next trade.

[developer]

Originally posted by theplumber
Bot 250 ES @ the close Friday. I would like to expand this to around 2000 over the next 2 days leading up to the Fed meeting. Stop @ 1275 .

What is your expected target and time frame for this trade?

[WCI1]

NQ

I have been following the same NQ formation, it does look like a valid Butterfly, untill 1670 is taken out, time wise formayion is a bit strached, so based on initial swings, it seems like until arround March 6, there should be some ZIG-ZAG of about 200 point range, 1680-1880, and in 4-5 weeks a breakout to first target of 2040 and eventually to 2420-50 area latr this year.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by theplumber
Bot 250 ES @ the close Friday. I would like to expand this to around 2000 over the next 2 days leading up to the Fed meeting. Stop @ 1275 .

Didn't get as long as I wanted but still added 500 more on the morning weakness 1/28 and 1000 more the gap down 1/31. As such I trimmed my exposure selling 750 @ the close Feb 1 (gotta luv trend days ) So I still have 1000 left with a new stop @ 1335 or break even. This is a mechanical stop so if it gets hit it's gone . Why do I say this? I believe (and have cyclical evidence) this rally is for real but the time frame I have for a bottom is larger that I like. Cycles don't ring a bell with a date and price, but instead a zone. So if I'm going to make an error I will err on the front side of this zone. No one believes this rally and it is getting way too much attention from the media/press. New highs to come? I doubt it but sidways with an upward slope very likely. Here's my thinking, if the S&P 500 goes sideways into the rebate time frame of June/July then there will be a huge recognition that the bottom is in and 1600 S&P 500 will be hit in no time. I have run historical models over the past 100 years of panics and the S&P 500 should be much lower by now, by like 100-200 points lower. So historically this time we live in is the most unpredictable in history. I think eco number coming out will flucuate wildly and the market will experience the same vol going forward. So that's my trade for now.

[theplumber]

Stopped out completely @ 1335. The time frame goes until early March with price in the 1225 area. I will be watching.

Originally posted by theplumber
Didn't get as long as I wanted but still added 500 more on the morning weakness 1/28 and 1000 more the gap down 1/31. As such I trimmed my exposure selling 750 @ the close Feb 1 (gotta luv trend days ) So I still have 1000 left with a new stop @ 1335 or break even. This is a mechanical stop so if it gets hit it's gone . Why do I say this? I believe (and have cyclical evidence) this rally is for real but the time frame I have for a bottom is larger that I like. Cycles don't ring a bell with a date and price, but instead a zone. So if I'm going to make an error I will err on the front side of this zone. No one believes this rally and it is getting way too much attention from the media/press. New highs to come? I doubt it but sidways with an upward slope very likely. Here's my thinking, if the S&P 500 goes sideways into the rebate time frame of June/July then there will be a huge recognition that the bottom is in and 1600 S&P 500 will be hit in no time. I have run historical models over the past 100 years of panics and the S&P 500 should be much lower by now, by like 100-200 points lower. So historically this time we live in is the most unpredictable in history. I think eco number coming out will flucuate wildly and the market will experience the same vol going forward. So that's my trade for now.

[theplumber]

Almost there. Look at what's happening this month, quad witching, fed meeting, and spring equinox. Should be an interesting month

[theplumber]

Better late than never, went long 500 ES last Friday @ the close (which is my style, I love trend days) . With the news hitting the wires now it seems good but I'm very cautious, more so than in 2002 or 2003. Something inside me says the worst hasn't happened yet.

Edit my cost is about 1282 with a stop around 1270 or maybe 1265. My stop will be manual so I'm watching this very closely and listening to what the market is telling me. I trade off S&P 500 prices not ES because my analysis is based on S&P cash not ES.

Another edit, stopped out already. Watch in the morning and decide then.