Fibo & Geometry

[theplumber]

Gamma related decline today but still within the cyclical limits of an upward slope.

[Garym]

50%

Thanks to ThePlumber and TedK great posts.
Yesterday stopped at a 50% pullback level.

GM

[vciro]

cycle

Dear plumber,
i have see your chart on cycle analysis.
The indicator that you use are available in esignal ?
or are in other software ?
i'm very interesting at this indicator.
Thanks a lot Ciro.

[theplumber]

Re: cycle

http://www.sr-analyst.com/cyclePack.htm

Originally posted by vciro
Dear plumber,
i have see your chart on cycle analysis.
The indicator that you use are available in esignal ?
or are in other software ?
i'm very interesting at this indicator.
Thanks a lot Ciro.

[theplumber]

4 models for the coming week, a little of everything. Price scale isn't important but direction is for every given day so take one days model at a time

[soylent]

Plumber -

So, if I'm reading that correctly:
Trend up Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
Peak mid-day Thursday
Move down Thursday afternoon through Friday?

-c

[Garym]

SPM

CIT here?

[theplumber]

Originally posted by soylent
Plumber -

So, if I'm reading that correctly:
Trend up Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
Peak mid-day Thursday
Move down Thursday afternoon through Friday?

-c

How to trade models is the most difficult thing most people have to adjust to. If used with the right technical indicators I trade models kind of like buy dips Monday-Wednesday and look to sell rallys Thursday and Friday. The screenshot is some of what I'm looking at to help with the models. The reason I'm showing the indicators is b/c cycle models sometime invert. They are right 80-90% of the time but if the technicals don't agree I'm not going to let the 10% downside hurt me and will revert to price action instead.

[theplumber]

Re: SPM

Originally posted by Garym
CIT here?

Nice work Gary, amazing it works with the 24 hour ES.

[tedk]

Is a low in?
Below the updated the chart of 26th april. 1163 as 1.618 extension and 1076 as 50% retrace of wave 3.
Good prices match on SQ9 961 up.
13 trading days from 1163-1087; 8 td 1087-1150; 34 td 1087 to 1076
The low of 1076 came in 116 trading days after 6-8-03 => 11-5-04, a deviation of 1 day with the actual low.
Picture still looks bearish but should allow for an up move up to 1117

25-05-03 Oops, 116 calender days instead op td. Rest is td.

[tedk]

50% retrace on the hourly so further up

[tedk]

1 point short of 1117 but lots of resistance.
Resistance of previous low (daily left top) and retest of HS? Possible 38% retrace (daily left bottom) of first wave down?
SQ9 hit 960 up (1 point short) and fibo MA resistance (daily right bottom). Ending diagonal on 3-min right top?

[theplumber]

Some number counts

[soylent]

Dang Plumber --

What in the heck did you just say?

My problem:
a) Overbought on DAILY and in 'oscilation' mode (non trending). Yet, the 50-day MA is only 15pts below us (NQ) so even if you short it you have to deal w/ a lot of support potential now that the danged mutual funds knocked us over the 50-day MA.

b) 60M in rally but also overbought. So, we will probably just churn.

My guess:
We are in a downtrend on the DAILY. The mutuals will pin us to the 50-day MA until the DAILY can reverse to a LONG uptrend (about 2-3 more days) then we can start a real rally because the weekly is showing a complete pullback to the bottom of an uptrend and will start it's next leg up.

We could rally from here, but we're so overbought, it's hard to imagine it w/o at least 2-3 more days of consolidation.

Prognosis:
Put in a BUY order @ the 50MA and go play golf. Come back Tuesday.

-c

[theplumber]

Originally posted by soylent
Dang Plumber --

What in the heck did you just say?


My guess:
We are in a downtrend on the DAILY. The mutuals will pin us to the 50-day MA until the DAILY can reverse to a LONG uptrend (about 2-3 more days) then we can start a real rally because the weekly is showing a complete pullback to the bottom of an uptrend and will start it's next leg up.

We could rally from here, but we're so overbought, it's hard to imagine it w/o at least 2-3 more days of consolidation.

Prognosis:
Put in a BUY order @ the 50MA and go play golf. Come back Tuesday.

-c

I hate to burst your bubble but mutuals don't care about moving averages, hedgies or asset allocator/managed funds either. Traders are the only element who pay attention (and you'd be surprised there how many could care less also) to MA's and such. This week could/might/will be a preformance issue. As the market thins the markets can be manipulated higher by long funds, which statistically hedgies belong in this catagory as well as all the others. To see what "they" are looking at, check out the corporate bond market #1. It has a telling tendency to improve before equities. #2 check out the volatility sellers, they have some of the best timing models going and sniff around alot. When they are volatility sellers the downtrend is ending. They also aren't selling short yet b/c they sniffed out the institutions closed most of their puts this past week. "They" obviously know something about this one having legs. Jason Goepfert has some nice stats as well on turning observations you may also want to check out http://www.sentimentrader.com/ This is only FWIW as I'm a 5K RT emini trader a day so opinions are kept to a minimum by me.