Fibo & Geometry

[theplumber]

Some number games ,I've already described how it's done

[theplumber]

Pyrapoint shown to how I use and trade it, anchored to the March high

[theplumber]

Cycle stuff for Friday

[theplumber]

A follow up to one below posted a few days ago telling to buy and a cyclical bottom is in. Cycle rally is running out of steam next week. Doesn't mean the markets can't go higher , just will have a hard time doing so. Almost forgot, this is using Wave59

[soylent]

Plumber --

Once again, no idea what you said!

> 5K RT emini
What's is that? 5K R/T's per DAY? Woah...

Thanks for the advice on the mutuals. I mostly follow the 50/200 MA. Perhaps only traders follow MA's or perhaps not, as you point out, but, seems that traders didn't want to see the 50 blow under the 200 on NQ. And, a surprising amount of buying @ the 200. While Mutuals may not be what keeps it there, 'something' does -- perhaps Bush.

Your points on BONDs, VIX, Sentiment, are all well taken. I have personally experienced being 'pinned' to a $35 strike on QQQ expiration day. There is no doubt big-money in playing the volatility angle. Yet, I've never figured out how to really use it w/ any success. On occasion I've thought I figured out where QQQ would close & dang if it didn't jump to a different strike & close there instead... (Which was fine as I shorted the up strike but I missed out on another $ of intrinsic I could have collected...) Perhaps I'm just not putting enough effort into disecting the put/call ratio or VIX properly.

And, I have noticed if ZB (10yr bond) rises, SHORT NQ -- intraday.

But, I must still be missing some piece of the game because I can't seem to pull it together.

I've tried intraday trading and 'can' do it but it's SO HARD and numbing that I keep moving back towards 20m, 60m, D, W charts...

I definitely find the A/D as well as overall volume to be tell tale where we are going. They all triggered LONGS about 4 days ago -- first time in over 8 weeks since last rally off 200day MA.

But, I still question as to whether we will sustain this up move in what I consider a downtrend.

VIX has certainly moved down into the 'trend' zone but, that, to me, just certifies that 'maybe' we will continue a long brutal rally that moves up 10pts a day for a month and I feel stupid for having missed it or we will just 'sit' here for a month and move no where. I've yet to see VIX tell me anything other than: Hey, BIG oscillations are here. Perhaps the smart thing to do is to sell some premium on PUT's so I make money if we sit or go up? But, of course, the buggers dropped the vix so my profit window is much less appetizing... Even so, I could get 50cents on a Jun $36P on QQQ. Or, $1 on a $37... Question is, where will we pin in 4 weeks?

Anyhow, Plumber -- I do appreciate everything you add. Please toss me a bone, if you don't mind, and tell me how to use VIX (or, I guess, that Sentiment site!) and if it really can help my trading in some way? I've spent a lot of time dissecting 'the next thing' and it just eats up a LOT of time and I never get anywhere?

THANKS AGAIN!

-c

[theplumber]

Originally posted by soylent
Plumber --

Once again, no idea what you said!

> 5K RT emini
What's is that? 5K R/T's per DAY? Woah...


-c

5K R/T's a day average had a 7K day today. And not 1 lotters either if you know what I mean. Options and how to trade vol is maybe the biggest art form known to mankind and as such I sit next to one of the best options traders around and get to pick his brain but most info is trade secrets, or secret sauce so to speak. One other site I would recommend is https://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/lo...i%2Findex.html
as well as the Sentimentrader site and this one as well http://www.minyanville.com/ and read anything by J Succo for options and how he trades vol.

[Garym]

From the PF count it looks like 1142 to 1152 to me

[FibbGann]

We are not out of the woods yet, still in this descending wedge.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by Garym
From the PF count it looks like 1142 to 1152 to me

Interesting Gary, you know/remember the important time frame of June 7-15 right? This is the inversion I told you about in his work, this may be a high time frame. The following charts support this time frame as a high. In fact talking to other traders last Friday before we all skipped town we talked about this coming week being weak to down, then rise into the Fed meeting and down hard from there into the elections. Kind of like sell into the Friday employment report, thinking it will be good again, but it won't, and traders buy into the Fed meeting thinking they won't raise interest rates, but they do anyway. Or maybe I got too much sun and too many coronas this weekend. What ever happens this summer will be more volitile than most think.

[theplumber]

Dos mas

[theplumber]

uno mas

[theplumber]

I'll post this here from Carl Futia, who got EVERYTHING right so far since the March 2000 high .This was posted May 13. I stand on the shoulders of giants, and he is one of them , enjoy.

This seems to be a good time to update the bond and stock forecasts I
made in early January and to say a few words about crude oil.

My square of nine calculations tell me that crude oil is at a long
term top. The market shows very strong resistance in the $41-42
range and I think that prices will start a bear market very soon.
Ultimately I expect to see crude drop to $16 over the next couple of
years. I might add that this forecast would also seem to suggest that
the turmoil in Iraq has seen its worst days and things are likely to
improve from here.

The cash market in both the long bond and the 10 year notes
established new high yields today for the upswing in yield that began
last June. I still think that the long bond yield will make it up to
roughly 6.00% sometime during the second half of this year but that
should end the bear market in bonds. At that time the futures will
probably be trading near 98. I expect the bear market low to occur a
month or two after the fed starts jacking up short term rates. I
think the interest rate markets will be quite confusing over the next
18 months because the yield curve will flatten considerably. Long
bond yields will probably drop on average during 2005 while the yield
on 3 month and 2 year paper will rise during the same period. Still,
I stand by my forecast that the long bond will yield 3.50% or so
sometime in 2008.

Over the shorter term I would like to point out a close similarity
between the 1986-1987 period in bonds and the 2003-2004 period. In
1986 the bonds made a long term top in April at 105 and dropped to 76
by October of 1987. But the move was not in a straight line. First
there was a fast 6 week drop from 105 to 90, then a rally from June
1986 through March 1987 from 90 to 102. After that the market dropped
sharpy to 88 in May 1987, rallied only a month to 94 and then dropped
to its final low at 76 in October 1987. The pattern is very similar
to what we have seen since the June 2003 peak. For this reason and
because my square of nine calculations agree I would expect a 4-8
week rally in the bonds and notes from current levels (103-16 bonds
and 108-00 notes). I don't think this will carry the bonds up much
more than 6 points.

I think it quite likely that the S&P's made a low at 1076 on Tuesday.
If I am wrong about this the worst I see on the downside is 1060. My
working hypothesis is that the market in March established the first
of the three peaks of Lindsay's three peaks-domed house formation
(see my January forecast for more details). The rally to the second
peak is probably already underway and I expect the top of this rally
to occur in the 1190-1250 zone sometime in July or August. A third
peak is likely but it may well be a lower than this second peak. The
break which will develop after the market's peak this summer will
probably carry prices back down to 1050.

Carl

[tedk]

Price resistance from May 4. 1 point short of SQ9. Looks like HS is building strenght.
Diagonal down on 3-min with accurate 62% retrace. Back to 1104?

[theplumber]

How about this TedK, muddle around and bleed down to 1109-1104 and then up to 1160? I think we are on the same page.

[Garym]

1157

The diatonics Extension of 1.5 of the price move so far is 1157 and the time extension of 1.5 is tuesday wednesday next week. They Cross nicely.
The support under here is as you point out 1106 ish on the diatonics ratio Andrews ML.
The time/price extensions are done by setting the Fibo cycle finders to the diatonic ratios. BTW the 0.66 and 1.00 vertcal time cycle finders are extrapolations from a previous start and 0.33 pair of Keys.
I hope this isn't "groupthink"!

Cheers Gary