Fibo & Geometry

[Garym]

settings

ML and "Fibo" setting changes

[spike500]

Plumber,

i agree with Carl Futia. I posted on may,17 the following on an belgian forum:

By Spike500 on Maandag, 17 Mei 2004 - 22:14: Edit

Vanaf morgen kunnen we stijgen volgens mij. We hebben zojuist het koopsignaal gehad rond 1082.

In plain english: buysignal at 1082 on may,17 posted less than 1 hour after the signal.

I think we will make a new high in the next months.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by spike500
Plumber,

i agree with Carl Futia. I posted on may,17 the following on an belgian forum:

By Spike500 on Maandag, 17 Mei 2004 - 22:14: Edit

Vanaf morgen kunnen we stijgen volgens mij. We hebben zojuist het koopsignaal gehad rond 1082.

In plain english: buysignal at 1082 on may,17 posted less than 1 hour after the signal.

I think we will make a new high in the next months.

Care to share how you came to this conclusion? Maybe we all can learn a thing or two.

[theplumber]

Interesting observations

[theplumber]

Even if you only swing trade this dynamic is important. Talking to some pro trader friends of mine last Friday the buzz was all about this dynamic, the relationship of the equity markets to 10 Year to the dollar index. Sometimes 2 of the three couple together but when all are together it spells trouble. The most important though is the $DXC to $TNX relationship. Without the BOJ to intervene the FED is all that's left, something the equity markets haven't seen yet and how it reacts to a spread between $DXC and $TNX will foretell any coming panic that "may" happen in August/Sept time frame. FWIW and not advice or a prediction, just an observation.

[theplumber]

2 opposing charts, one says a high Dec 3 and the other says June 14-28.

[spike500]

Originally posted by theplumber
Care to share how you came to this conclusion? Maybe we all can learn a thing or two.

Plumber,

i combine TA with statistical calculations and with calculus of probabilities. I also use mutiple timeframes.
I created a number of models that try to give insight in the behaviour of the mass.
Afterwards i look which model fits best on the actual situation, that model is than followed until the conditions change and another model would be more appropriate.
I think you can compare it with the charts just below. Based on the model you can try to project the future moves.
There are however 2 limitations:
you are never sure, but that's so for all systems.
sometimes you have to abandone a model for another one because market conditions changed.

According to my actual model we should go up for approx. 3 weeks. If we than make a new high the next step would be a severe move downwards.

As you already told: these are no advices, just opinions. Everyone should take his own responsability in deciding what to do.

[tedk]

Originally posted by theplumber
How about this TedK, muddle around and bleed down to 1109-1104 and then up to 1160? I think we are on the same page.

Absolutely.

This should be wave 1 of 5 up. 3 TD from 1076 to the low of 17-5. Then up 13 TDs till friday.
Alternatively, prices could go up a bit more. Top line on the 10-min chart left might be touched once more and the sloping trendline on the daily is attracting prices.

[tedk]

I'm still bullish, however, hitting 1133 might activate a bearish scenario.
The upper trend line of the 10-min has been hit. In an ending diagonal a bit of overshoot should be expected which could bring prices to 1133.
1133 is 50% fibo retrace of the first wave down as can be seen on the left chart. The whole structure is very much corrective so an irregular could fit.
Particular the last wave up from the 1076 low is not very impulsive which undermines the bullish scenario unless the
1085 low is taken as the completion of the wave down.
The whole structure would then be an A-B-C and currently wave 1 up.

[Garym]

1124 1129 1134

We are also equidistant time wise here.

see the highs at start, 0.66 and 1.25 at 11:00am

[Garym]

diatonic MLs

MLs

[tedk]

Resistance at 1133? Did not exist. Resistance at 1140? 1140 is 62% fibo retrace and SQ9 up from 789.
Major decline ahead? Next week expiration with high PCR rate more suggest a short squeeze.
I find it hard to believe that everybody in the stockmarket is prepared for a major decline and fully loaded with puts.
Excluded by definition of Elliott Wave. A devious gap up open?

[spike500]

Originally posted by tedk
Resistance at 1133? Did not exist. Resistance at 1140? 1140 is 62% fibo retrace and SQ9 up from 789.
Major decline ahead? Next week expiration with high PCR rate more suggest a short squeeze.
I find it hard to believe that everybody in the stockmarket is prepared for a major decline and fully loaded with puts.
Excluded by definition of Elliott Wave. A devious gap up open?

I posted already yesterday:According to my actual model we should go up for approx. 3 weeks. If we than make a new high the next step would be a severe move downwards.

I cannot show any chart because i have only lists of calculations that give a probability of over 80% that we we go higher for approx. 3 weeks. So all the resistances in the next 3 weeks have no importance to me.
I had to go long at 1082 and stay long . Momentum is building up, that explains the two big moves up on may 25 and yesterday.

[theplumber]

How about something like this?

[spike500]

Originally posted by theplumber
How about something like this?

Could be, i will let you know what happened in a few months.

But i don't believe in forecasts for more than a few months.
So 2005 is irrelevant to me.