Trading the markets with Jerry Olson

[jerryo]

anyone watching the TRIN???? holy cow..no sellers out there yet...

es m4 basing at or near the highs...

[soylent]

I know the TRIN is out of control...

I was looking @ the a/d line all day. They (whoever they are) just keep daring you to short it w/ a little down draft on TICK or the A/D but the accumulation volume line just keeps climbing...

At some point, whoever's buying will run out of cash.

Nice call on the break of the NQ 1436 level. I wish I had read your post earlier -- I thought the gap would fade.

[soylent]

Hey Jerry --

On the spoos -- it's a shame to see a beautifully high ADX reading like that get wasted in a boringly flat market like we had!

I was certainly ready to see some dramatic trending occuring!

[jerryo]

Morning Soylent

well that high adx was trumped by the unually low Trin...

no real sellers out there yesterday...

the markets setting up for a small pullback here nothing serious into late next week, then a ramp job of major proportions into earnings season...

the semis will lead this rally for sure as their Bullish Percent is the lowest of "all" sectors right now...very positive for the up coming run here.

i think we rally laste today into the morning then selloff ahead of the employment report thursday...

i have no clue what that report will provide for us..but let's trade the "reaction" to it not the actual report...

good luck

jerry

[soylent]

Hi Jerry --

I've only been a 'trader' for 8 months. While I can look @ charts and wonder 'what happened there' -- unless you actually 'lived' through that rally / pullback, you can't really fathom it.

Anyhow, my first several months (summer to fall) where slightly up, then lots of big oscillations (november/december). Finally in December-January the mother of all rallys. Now, QQQ drops for 2 straight months.

The best thing I've found is to not bias myself. While I do find it's fun to guess where we will be, I just trade the market for that day. Set the s/r levels and see where we go... Try to take some trades where good technical indicators set up (ADX or CCI).

I find it interesting you think we may / will rally out of this hole we are in. There is certainly a lot of negative sentiment -- so, it may occur!

When you refer to a 'ramp job of major proportions'. Who do you think ramps us? You mean like, market makers keeping the ASK high to force prices up, CNBC adding frosting by talking it up, ....? I guess: How do you envision this type of ramping occurs? Who are the buyers and why does it work? They (CNBC, market makers, hedges) just futz w/ the technical indicators to propel stocks higher (i.e. keep lending support so ADX stays up, MACD stays up, above the 10day, etc...), they make the public think they are missing the new rally, and BAM! Lots of new investors 'buy the top'?

I'm just curious for your thoughts on this. I've always wondered 'why' these things occur. Who actually controls the direction?

Thanks Jerry!

-c

[jerryo]

First of all i like the fact you're coming into each day neutral..makes for a good daytrader mentality..do not lean or anticipate...wait for the days trend to emerge...usually around 10 am est...

as for the reasons for the coming ramp Soylent, is the fund managers have hugh amounts of cash sloshing around in their portfolios that have to be put to work..

they always love to buy the up coming earnings season on the "hope springs eternal" thinking..

all we do is follow along...like in caboose...we do not predict or guess, we only follow merrily along which ever direction the streets wants to take us..

those folks that are crystal ball predictors always come out on the short end of the stick...

i would eliminate all things pertaining to CNBC, Market Makers etc...let them go for now as they have nothing to do with market direction...i call it markey "noise" ignore it completely...

concentrate on set ups to trade...use the Daily Candle Charts first then move back to 5 & 15 minute mva's during the day..

keep it simple, keep it relaxed and you'll do well...

anythime you would like to watch us trade Real Time In my online trading room let me know...

there are about 120 people in ther world wide that trade with me each day...

regards

jerry

[jerryo]

CONSOLIDATION DAY

Looks to me like a sideways narrow range day...a consolidation day..

no real sellers or buyers, but the bias is up...

i expect a rally tomorrow...

[jerryo]

if we take out 1123 spooos get long and cover all shorts..we've been trading the long side all day today...

[jerryo]

Heavy R at 1123.00 so far..we need to blast up and thru it to my near term target of 1128..thats ultimate near term hard R...

maybe tomorrow we'll see...

[jerryo]

POP GOES THE WEASEL

[jerryo]

Hey Fibbgann

trying hard each day...we did good all day today scalping relaxed and without fear..very solid day watching the es m4 lead this market...

i'll drop by your thread too...check it out...

[smokey]

Qlogic warned

Qlogic warning and Intel weak should put pressure on the nasdaq tomorrow. $spx has ran up to resistance and should fall back now.

[jerryo]

Originally posted by FibbGann
Jerryo,

Here are my 3 concerns for the attempt to break resistance.

Divergence in many indicators

"LOW" volume

Fridays jobs report, which many are expecting a bigger change than they should be!

Your thoughts?

Fibbgann

Good Morning Fibbgann

i agree that we are just doing what i call a backside bounce on the daily candle charts of most indexs here. Usually we'll see sellers first show up to push this back down for either a retest of last weeks lows or make a higher low.

either way i am buying that coming dip. we have a cycle low date too around the 6th. but either way i like the earnings season ramp job the street puts on ahead of those reporting dates...

as for volume i never real look at it except on large 2 billion share days...

tjhis am the futures already touched my upside target of 1128.00...and now?

[jerryo]

Re: Qlogic warned

Originally posted by smokey
Qlogic warning and Intel weak should put pressure on the nasdaq tomorrow. $spx has ran up to resistance and should fall back now.

Hello Smokey

QLGC is company specific...it will not hurt the whole tech sector imo...as for hitting resistance yes we should do that on all indexes today...Watch 10.450 INDU too.

i doubt the street will hold longs ahead of the employment number at 8.30 Friday am est...

but because of the start of earnings season i like the market to rally here...i'll be posting some trading longs with charts right here..

thanks for posting and welcome...

jerry

[smokey]

Qlogic specific

QLGC is company specific...it will not hurt the whole tech sector imo...

When you have 2 main suppliers of hba's and the other is high end and Emulex is acting like it could crack as well, how can you surmise that it is stock specific. You really have to understand the culture of Qlogic to understand how big this is. imo