Fibo & Geometry

[SERGIO.M]

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[SERGIO.M]

s&p daily

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[theplumber]

Re: Re: Crossing Ganns

Originally posted by theplumber
The 3 peaks was shown to me by C. Futia back in Sept 2003 and it's where he thinks the pattern started for the current market we are in now. So the high in March (S&P that is) is #3 and 5 is April and 7 is completing now then a move down into mid July/mid August is 8 and then the big move down in Oct (10) and then off to the races again with a cyclical bull high in 2005 (trivia time, name a decade with a year ending in 5 that was a down year?)

I said this early July and everything is going to script. Problem is I didn't include the 9 for the "three peaks and a domed house" . 9 was the high August 2. As always, cycles work with price being the arbitor. So if 1035-1055 is hit in a massive bleed down this week then I can live with that to be the bottom in price for #10. The cycles will keep price down, maybe until the elections but at the very least until earnings season starts. Earnings season has been sold all this year so this dynamic must change to move the market higher no matter who is elected prez. The year end may be a mirror image of last year but I'm not certain yet as I have a large cycle date due in early January.

[theplumber]

Some Carl Futia

At the moment my square of 9 calculations say that the S&P's will
make a low at 1055 this week and then rally to or above the 1200
level.

The market has completed the three peaks part of a George Lindsay
style, "three peaks and a domed house formation" (March, April and
June are the three peaks in the S&P) and the current break is the
separating decline. Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the
domed house part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends
what Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations using
Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance began in March
2003 and is likely to last into the second half of 2005. Even an 8
month rally (the typical duration of a "domed house" rally) from a
low now would not last into the second half of 2005.

I think this conflict will be resolved in one of two ways.

The first way is the pattern I have been expecting for the past year.
In this pattern the March top is iself only the first peak of a
larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004; in
this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004
and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?) will
be lower than the second. After the third peak in January 2005 the
separating decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months
from the third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed
house rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of 2005.

The second resolution is becoming more and more likely given the
degree of pessism I currently think I see in public investment
perceptions. In this scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-
June of 2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like
March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear market.

In either scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through
most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the 850-950
range.

In my May 13 message I said that the bonds were about to begin a
rally from the 103 level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and
carry the market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen
a rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a 12
week span.

I now think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds
moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of
111-26 yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to 109-08.
The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday and have the
potential to get to get up to 114-16. First they will probably drop
to 111-16. The next big downleg will probably carry the bonds down
into the 100-102 range and that may well be the bear market low for
bonds. The notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the
notes will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to flatten
substantially.

I thought crude would top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got
was a break to $35. I now think that the bull market high will occur
in the $45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down to
$18.

Carl


And one more thing to add, before thinking oil can't get to 18 again you may want to open your mind to science and the way things really are and really work http://www.leggmason.com/funds/ourfu...commannual.asp

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.07/gold_pr.html

[theplumber]

I'm finding it real hard to agree with Carl Futia at this time. Talking to some in the biz and they seem to think sub 1000 S&P coming. I still see early Sept 1030 S&P. A group conversation with M Santoli of Barrons got this from him 9 days ago "Elaborating on Tony's point about the market's tendency to rise from the end of May to the end of September in election years, and of special note to those convinced we've already seen the low for this go-round:
In those same May-Sept. periods in the election years from '64-'00, the drawdown over that period (May 31 close to the low between May-Sept.) averaged 4.96% on the Dow. (I used the Dow because I had the older data handy and am too lazy to go to the nearest Bloomberg.)
The largest drawdown: 8.4% in '96
The smallest drawdown: 2.4% in '76
The Dow's recent low was 3% below end May levels. If I were the sort of guy to believe in election-year numerology, which I'm really not, I'd say that history suggests at least a tad more 'down' before we enjoy the pre-election 'up."

I guess only time will tell.

[theplumber]

Another cycle model from here http://www.chartsedge.com/

[theplumber]

Too much time on my hands tonight.

[digilume]

Monthly snap

Dailys show some gann fan support around 1055.
If that fails - 975 is the next fan support on the monthly

[vciro]

gann

I have see that in this group there are more reference to the gann study.
I have a big doubtful, the 1x1 line or 45° degree is fixed on the chart and therefore it is always the same, or it is changing whith day by day action of market space and time ???


For example the 1x1 line from march 03 low is the same now, tomorrow and in advance ??

or tomorrow it will be differently ??


thanks at all, Ciro.

[tedk]

Originally posted by theplumber
I'm finding it real hard to agree with Carl Futia at this time. ......
I guess only time will tell.

Different ways of using SQ9.
The 769 low and the 1163 high are resp. 930 and 1444 days after ATH.
This SQ has the prominent turning points of the last 1,5 year.
The next significant CIT must fit in these squares as well. Tomorrow at 1058 could be a nice try.

[tedk]

The 1058 would fit in SQ9 down from 1163
Next opportunity would be 19-9-04.

[tedk]

Originally posted by SERGIO.M
.

Nice pira overview on the SP. Any particular reason why you start on the Sep-2000 top rather then the March Top?

[theplumber]

Re: gann

Originally posted by vciro
I have see that in this group there are more reference to the gann study.
I have a big doubtful, the 1x1 line or 45° degree is fixed on the chart and therefore it is always the same, or it is changing whith day by day action of market space and time ???


For example the 1x1 line from march 03 low is the same now, tomorrow and in advance ??

or tomorrow it will be differently ??


thanks at all, Ciro.

I don't think this is purely a Gann study group but more like what ever makes money group. Watch out for Gann freaks because they will rot your brain as to what works and what doesn't. Gann was specific on squaring charts 1 unit time X 1 unit price because he found patterns when he did this. Software tries to hit angles, like 45 degrees, but it is 45 dregrees scaled to the chart screen and not the data withing the chart itself. So the obvious square in price and time was the Oct 10 2002 low of 768, which was 768 days from Sept 30 2000. But look at the chart below, it's Wave59 and shows the chart scaled 1X1 time to price relationship. You see I used calender days instead of trading days because then I can just set my Gann angles to 1 calender day per unit of price. This is what Gann saw, a pattern. He used zero angles with the same price X time relationship to see the big picture patterns, which is just using the properly scaled angles starting at zero directly below the important high, which is Sept 30 2000 because it was then the real bear market started. The arrow is where the 2 1X1 lines cross, the important low in Oct 10 2002. Now you see the magic of a squared chart and properly scaled angles just like Gann did. Also look at the intersection of angles hit for important turning ponts, Sept 2001 low is hit, low in July 2002, high in Aug 2002 . Gann was more or less a swing trader, forecasting the major turns and entering long or short over and over again until the next forecasted turn came and reversing the trades in and out like a boxer sticking and moving. This is how I trade, forecasting the turns and having a bias until the next turn comes. The angles can help find the important turns and S/R but only if they are on a properly scaled chart then using the properly scaled angles. The chart here http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...0charts&id=889
shows a few smaller term angles and when the 1X1 line in March 2004 was violated the sell off began and never recovered. Gann would say an important bottom would be where it hits the next angle, or in this case an up sloping 1050 line.

[macavity]

Gann question

Not trying to be difficult, but if the $SPX was divided by 2 would Gann work? Am I right in saying it would not?
I cannot understand the 1pt per day thing.
A point is so arbitrary - if it were some % per day it would make more intuitive sense to me.

Is anyone (currently) able to work with Gann off say the $NDX or $INDU?

thx

macavity

[SERGIO.M]

Re: Re: gann

Originally posted by theplumber
I don't think this is purely a Gann study group but more like what ever makes money group. Watch out for Gann freaks because they will rot your brain as to what works and what doesn't. Gann was specific on squaring charts 1 unit time X 1 unit price because he found patterns when he did this. Software tries to hit angles, like 45 degrees, but it is 45 dregrees scaled to the chart screen and not the data withing the chart itself. So the obvious square in price and time was the Oct 10 2002 low of 768, which was 768 days from Sept 30 2000. But look at the chart below, it's Wave59 and shows the chart scaled 1X1 time to price relationship. You see I used calender days instead of trading days because then I can just set my Gann angles to 1 calender day per unit of price. This is what Gann saw, a pattern. He used zero angles with the same price X time relationship to see the big picture patterns, which is just using the properly scaled angles starting at zero directly below the important high, which is Sept 30 2000 because it was then the real bear market started. The arrow is where the 2 1X1 lines cross, the important low in Oct 10 2002. Now you see the magic of a squared chart and properly scaled angles just like Gann did. Also look at the intersection of angles hit for important turning ponts, Sept 2001 low is hit, low in July 2002, high in Aug 2002 . Gann was more or less a swing trader, forecasting the major turns and entering long or short over and over again until the next forecasted turn came and reversing the trades in and out like a boxer sticking and moving. This is how I trade, forecasting the turns and having a bias until the next turn comes. The angles can help find the important turns and S/R but only if they are on a properly scaled chart then using the properly scaled angles. The chart here http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...0charts&id=889
shows a few smaller term angles and when the 1X1 line in March 2004 was violated the sell off began and never recovered. Gann would say an important bottom would be where it hits the next angle, or in this case an up sloping 1050 line.

Only some input for Ciro