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Questions at the close of 8 jan: is 1130.8 good enough to sell the Gann 1131 as given by Plumbers SQ9 earlier this week. Below a condensed version is given. According Gann the safest sell area is at the secondary rally after the top. But how to find out the end of that rally Combining Gann with other forecasting methodes might help.
The heavy sell initially suggested 1130.8 was good enough. Straight down to support at 1122. But then quickly up to 1129. Looking at the 1-min charts and applying some basic Elliot Wave rules 1129 was the first indication of more upward market action to come. AdvGet is not needed, this can be done by hand.
According to Neely a good impuls action will not retrace more then 62%. As a down movement was expected the bounch up to 1129 indicated that this was not yet the down move as expected. This got confirmed by the 50% retrace to 1126 in the 2e 1-min chart and the break of the trendline. The 3e chart is my EW count for an ending diagonal, assuming CIT at 1131. 1 and 4 are overlapping. 4 is 62% retrace. The 3-5 trend line can be drawn based on the 2-4 direction. wave 3 is never the shortest so at the completion of 4 the end target can be calculated and plotted based on the trend line. Wave 3 length is 4.19 so wave 5 could not go beyond 1131.77. The trend line shows slightly less.
At 1131 Gann SQ7 did it's work. A quick move down to 1127 support. Then a 37% retrace confirming an impuls wave down.
How far will it go? The hourly chart shows the move up since mid december which has many EW extentions, complicating proper counting. The red trend line assumes a wave 2 completed at 1068. As alternate, the yellow line completes wave 2 at 1072. Both are also a Gann numbers but 1068 appears better. 1072 could then be a lower level 2, part of the wave with all extentions, suggesting that 1131 was the 5 of that lower level and hence, 3 of the higher level. So the current move down should be wave 4 of an higher level started from 1053
The heavy sell initially suggested 1130.8 was good enough. Straight down to support at 1122. But then quickly up to 1129. Looking at the 1-min charts and applying some basic Elliot Wave rules 1129 was the first indication of more upward market action to come. AdvGet is not needed, this can be done by hand.
According to Neely a good impuls action will not retrace more then 62%. As a down movement was expected the bounch up to 1129 indicated that this was not yet the down move as expected. This got confirmed by the 50% retrace to 1126 in the 2e 1-min chart and the break of the trendline. The 3e chart is my EW count for an ending diagonal, assuming CIT at 1131. 1 and 4 are overlapping. 4 is 62% retrace. The 3-5 trend line can be drawn based on the 2-4 direction. wave 3 is never the shortest so at the completion of 4 the end target can be calculated and plotted based on the trend line. Wave 3 length is 4.19 so wave 5 could not go beyond 1131.77. The trend line shows slightly less.
At 1131 Gann SQ7 did it's work. A quick move down to 1127 support. Then a 37% retrace confirming an impuls wave down.
How far will it go? The hourly chart shows the move up since mid december which has many EW extentions, complicating proper counting. The red trend line assumes a wave 2 completed at 1068. As alternate, the yellow line completes wave 2 at 1072. Both are also a Gann numbers but 1068 appears better. 1072 could then be a lower level 2, part of the wave with all extentions, suggesting that 1131 was the 5 of that lower level and hence, 3 of the higher level. So the current move down should be wave 4 of an higher level started from 1053
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