Fibo & Geometry

[theplumber]

Some things I've found to work with timing. The Gann angles are scaled with a price to time relationship and at the intersection of these angles I've seen pretty good turns. Some other things are number tricks like taking the high and low difference (22.51 in this case) sqrt that number (4.74) and moving the decimal place (474) and then counting time from the top or bottom of the range (this is the blue lines). Another is taking Earth rotation from a high or low, which the chart shows in green. May not be an exact 360 degrees from high to low but is pretty close. The purple lines are lunar degrees from a high or low. The only thing that messes this study up are the weekends, in both cases 90 degrees exact fell on Sunday so when the market opened Monday it wasn't exact but still turned just the same.

[digilume]

Crossing Ganns

In the implementatation I have on for Esignal, (divergence) a fan cannot be drawn from any point on the chart. It has to be from a bar. i draw them from underneath/ above an apex at the level of a hlow/ high. With Metastock I can do this, up down forward and bacwards. But zooming alters the path of the fans which is wrong.
Anybody got a source for for a Gann fan this flexible?

Gary

[IbEmE]

Happy 4th all.

And to you Plumber, your the main reason why I and so many others check this thread so often.
Mark posted this "Every time I read one of your threads, I always seem to have a question for you, you are a fasinating person."
Mega dittos to that!
Please don't stop "SINGING"

[SERGIO.M]

Originally posted by theplumber
Some things I've found to work with timing. The Gann angles are scaled with a price to time relationship and at the intersection of these angles I've seen pretty good turns. Some other things are number tricks like taking the high and low difference (22.51 in this case) sqrt that number (4.74) and moving the decimal place (474) and then counting time from the top or bottom of the range (this is the blue lines). Another is taking Earth rotation from a high or low, which the chart shows in green. May not be an exact 360 degrees from high to low but is pretty close. The purple lines are lunar degrees from a high or low. The only thing that messes this study up are the weekends, in both cases 90 degrees exact fell on Sunday so when the market opened Monday it wasn't exact but still turned just the same.

Me too I remarked that when there is the intersection of Gann angles we have great chances there will be a market movement but this data does not say the direction.

Thank you

[theplumber]

Re: Crossing Ganns

Originally posted by digilume
In the implementatation I have on for Esignal, (divergence) a fan cannot be drawn from any point on the chart. It has to be from a bar. i draw them from underneath/ above an apex at the level of a hlow/ high. With Metastock I can do this, up down forward and bacwards. But zooming alters the path of the fans which is wrong.
Anybody got a source for for a Gann fan this flexible?

Gary

Both Wave59 and Ensign do what you want to do. I perfer Wave59 when using Gann angles b/c it offers the flexability to scale the time/price relationship to anything you want. Like if you want a 1x1 time/price (I may be wrong but I think this is the only scale Ensign has) or maybe a 2x1 time/price scaling. Also the ability to put the angles anywhere on the chart makes for do-it-yourself zero angles, which the bottom in 2002 bounced off of.This chart is an interesting chart. The 3 peaks was shown to me by C. Futia back in Sept 2003 and it's where he thinks the pattern started for the current market we are in now. So the high in March (S&P that is) is #3 and 5 is April and 7 is completing now then a move down into mid July/mid August is 8 and then the big move down in Oct (10) and then off to the races again with a cyclical bull high in 2005 (trivia time, name a decade with a year ending in 5 that was a down year?) . If anyone wants to read "George Lindsay speaks" let me know and I'll post it second hand, told by Carl Futia. Also, this chart shows some static cycles done last year (you have to trudge through the past posts in this thread to see it) using Ensign. The highs weren't dead on for the S&P (which I used in the study) but were useful in the Dow and Naz http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...r&a=theplumber's%20charts&id=889

[theplumber]

I have to warn people who have a closed mind, this has astro stuff in it. It was done January 2 2003, just after the major bottom Oct 2002 and before the retest 2003. It can be proven as such b/c it came from a yahoo group and it's still time stamped.
Enjoy
GEORGE LINDSAY SPEAKS

January 2, 2003

The analytical methods of the late George Lindsay often offer unique insights into the probable course of the stock market averages in the U.S. The advent of this new year offers a particularly interesting juncture at which I believe they have something very important to say.

LINDSAY'S METHODS

Anyone with an interest in learning about George Lindsay's stock market methods would do well to obtain a copy of a booklet entitled "Selected Articles by the late George Lindsay". It is available for a modest price from Investor's Intelligence in New Rochelle, NY (Tel: 914 632 0422 ) ([email protected]).

The methods used in the analysis below are those which Lindsay referred to as his long time intervals of 15 and 12 years and the method of basic advances and declines. Both of these are described in his article "Counts from the Middle Section" in the booklet cited above. Additional details on these methods can also be found in the article "Interpreting the Stock Market Day-by Day" in the same booklet.

I shall not have much to say about Lindsay's other two, long term forcasting techniques: the three peaks and domed house formation and the method of counts from the middle section. At the current time neither one has much to say about the current market situation, but both can be very valuable in the appropriate context.

THE 20 YEAR CYCLE

In my last conversation with Lindsay back in 1981 he told me that his forecasts were based 95% on his methods for counting time. But he also asserted that the other 5% came from checking the forecasts of his time-counting methods against the timing derived from long term astronomical cycles, principally the synodic periods of Jupiter- Saturn and Saturn- Uranus.

From ancient times the Jupiter-Saturn cycle (almost exactly 20 years in length) has been regarded by astrologers as a very important influence on the business cycle. Lindsay regarded this cycle as a very important one. The last Jupiter-Saturn geocentric conjunction occurred in May 2000. At almost exactly the same time Saturn was separted from Uranus by 90 degrees geocentrically, ¼ of their cycle. I think it can fairly be said that these two events marked a very important turning point in the world economy and stock market.

Coming back to earth we note that in August of 1982 the US stock market established an important low and the great stock market boom of the next 18 years began. Counting forward 20 years we arrive at August 2002, suggesting that a major low was due then. The year 1983 was a generally bullish year for stocks and so the 20 year cycle suggests that 2003 will be bullish also.

In June and October 1962 the Dow established important lows from which a 3 ½ year bull market began. Thus the 40 year cycle suggest a low in 2002 and a bullish year in 2003.

Finally, the Dow ended a 5 year bear market in April 1942 and then began a 4 year bull market. Counting forward 60 years one would expect a low in 2002 with a new bull market beginning from that low.

Looking to the sky for confirmation, we find that Jupiter attained a 45 degree separation (1/8 cycle) from Saturn on Ocober 13, 2002. Saturn attained a 120 degree (1/3 cycle) separation from Uranus on August 21, 2002.

The 20 year cycle plus the synodic astronomical cycles just cited all suggest that a low of importance was established in 2002 and that 2003 will be a bullish year. They speak less clearly about the timing of the next bull market top. However, I do note that a 90 degree separation between Jupiter and Saturn will occur in December of 2005. From the perspective of the 20 year cycle note that there were bull market tops in May 1946 and February 1966. This suggests that late 2005 or early 2006 might be a time to watch for a bull market top provided other methods confirm this expectation.

It is also worth noting that Jupiter will attain a 60 degree separation from Saturn in November of 2003 while at the same time Saturn will be within one degree of an exact 135 degree (3/8 cycle) separation from Uranus; morover both Saturn and Uranus will be stationary in the sky at the time. These phenomena suggest that a turning point of some importance will occur late in 2003 but that it will not be of the same significance as the 2002 low or the subsequent top in late 2005.

LINDSAY'S LONG TIME PERIODS

The cornerstone of Lindsay's long term forecasts were his long time periods of 15 and 12 years.

Lindsay had observed that counting forward an average of 12 years and 6 months from important bull market tops often comes very close in time to a bear market low or to an important secondary low close to the level of the bear market low. Note that this time period is just a tad longer that the 12 years it takes Jupiter to make a complete orbit around the sun.

Lindsay also observed that couning forward an average of 15 years and 6 months from a bear market low often comes very close in time to a bull market top or to a secondary top at nearly the same price level as the bull market top. Note that this 15 year period is just a bit longer that ½ the orbital period of Saturn.

Lindsay placed special emphasis on those situations in which one can start counting a 12 year period from the end of a 15 year period "that worked" and vice versa. In other words, he believed that there was a 28 year period from high to high and low to low.

There was a very important bear market low in October 1974 (S&P 500) and December 1974 (Dow). Couning forward 15 years and 6 months we arrive at March-May 1990. A bull market top occurred in July, 1990 and was followed by a brief bear market that dropped the averages 20% and heralded the 1990-1991 recession. Counting forward 12 years and 6 months from the July 1990 we arrive at January 2003 as a time for a bear market low. Counting forward 28 years from the 1974 low we arrive at the Ocober-December 2002 period as the ideal time for such a low.

Linday's long time periods clearly forecast a bear market low late in 2002 or early in 2003.

Do these long periods tell us anything about the timing of the next bull market top? Counting forward 15 years and 6 months from the October 1990 low we arrive at April 2006 as at projected bull market top. On the other hand, from the bull market top in September 1976 we can count forward 28 years and find September 2004 as a date for the next bull market top. The former projection agrees better with the 20 year cycle and planetary periods discussed above. The latter projection agrees better with the mechanical 4 year cycle projection. However, the best way to resolve a conflict such as this is to check these projections against the implications of Lindsay's method of basic advances and declines.

BASIC ADVANCES AND DECLINES

Lindsay observed that there was a remarkable consistency in the time, measured in calenday days, that it took bull and bear trends in the averages to move from high to low or low to high. His theory of these so-called basic advances and declines is explained in the articles cited above.

The 2000-2002 bear market was unusual in that it consisted of two basic declines, back to back. The typical basic decline lasts anywhere from 8 to 15 months (Lindsay classifies them into three types: subnormal - about 8 months, normal - about 11 months, and long - about 14 months). Lindsay's rule was that once a basic decline ended a basic advance had to begin. In a situation like the 2000-2002 bear market, the market will make a lower low during the course of the basic advance which begins after the bear market's first basic decline has ended.

The first basic decline of the 2000- 2002 bear market began on September 1, 2000 and ended on September 21, 2001, lasting 385 days. Lindsay would have begun this decline from the lower top in September 2000 instead of the bull market top in January or March of that year because the market's action for the first 8 months of 2000 was an extended sideways period ending at what Lindsay calls a "right shoulder". The right shoulder is the preferred starting point for counting a basic decline.

The 385 day length of the first basic decline classifies it as a "long" basic decline. A basic advance started on September 21, 2001. Since the basic advance which ended the 1998-2000 bull market was of subnormal length in Lindsay's classification, the subsequent basic advance should be expected to be long (about 26 months) or extended (about 32 months). In this case a 26 month basic advance would end in November 2003, coincident with minor synodic cycles cited above. This suggests that the late 2003 turing point will be an intermediate term high point.

At this point we can entertain an interesting hypothesis. According to Lindsay, the stock market can usually be found in some stage of a 3 peaks and a domed house formation about 60% of the time. We speculate that the first stage of the upcoming bull market will take the form of the three peaks. If the first peak occurred on December 2, 2002, the third peak can be expected about 9-10 months later, in this case September-October 2003. From the third peak an intermediate term (10-15%) decline can be expected and from the subsequent low another strong advance (the domed house) to new highs for the bull market should develop.

Let us return to the analysis of basic declines and advances. After the first basic decline of the bear market ended on Sepember 21, 2001, the market rallied for about 6 months. A second basic decline began on March 19, 2002. The shortest possible basic decline should last no less than 231 days according to Lindsay and consequently the low in October 2002 cannot be the low of the basic decline. In this situation Lindsay would probably be looking for the basic decline to end at a secondary low, a low above the October low. Moreover, since the long time periods all point to a low late in 2002 or early in 2003 Lindsay would probably expect this basic decline to last either 294, 326 or 342 days. A 294 day basic decline would end on January 7, a 326 day decline on February 7 and a 342 day decline on February 25.

From the end of this basic decline a new basic advance should start. Again, the last basic advance ended the 1998-2000 bull market was subnormal in length. Therefore the basic advance which is likely to begin from the upcoming low should last somewhere between 26 and 32 months. This projects a bull market top sometime during 2005.

SUMMARY

The 20 year cycle, the synodic cycles of Jupiter-Saturn and Saturn-Uranus and Lindsay's 12 and 15 year periods all suggest that a bear market low occurred in 2002 and that a bull market top is due possibly as early as late 2004 but more likely sometime in 2005.

The drop from the market's December 2002 top will probably end at a low above the October 2002 low and terminate the basic decline which began from the March 18, 2002 top. Counting forward a long basic advance of 26 to 32 months from the upcoming secondary low also projects a bull market top for 2005. Finally, we suspect that the first stage of this bull market will take the form of Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation.

Carl Futia

[digilume]

Thanks again. The crossing points have acted as attractors in the past. The next crossing point is at 1095 in about 8 trading days. The Rise is 8 and the run is 10

I googled for Futia but didnt get anything direct.

[theplumber]

Originally posted by digilume
Thanks again. The crossing points have acted as attractors in the past. The next crossing point is at 1095 in about 8 trading days. The Rise is 8 and the run is 10

I googled for Futia but didnt get anything direct.

http://netec.mcc.ac.uk/WoPEc/data/Articles/ecmemetrpv:50:y:1982:i:2:p:377-408.html

http://www.luckowgroup.com/l&sbooks.htm

And look on this last url and go through the names and books, see if anything doesn't look right when you match them up.

Almost forgot, maybe the best Gann box too I've ever seen is the fixed ratio one packaged with AGET.

[digilume]

Can you check the first URL please?

[IbEmE]

Here's theplumbers first link "Carl Futia " ;

http://netec.mcc.ac.uk/WoPEc/data/Articles/ecmemetrpv:50:y:1982:i:2:p:377-408.html

[IbEmE]

Originally posted by IbEmE
Here's theplumbers first link "Carl Futia " ;

http://netec.mcc.ac.uk/WoPEc/data/Ar...p:377-408.html

Sorry this one got scrambled to?

[digilume]

The url on the email notification of a reply to thread is OK
There is a contrast between a paper like this

We're sorry. You do not have access to JSTOR from your current location.

The article you requested is:

Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models
Carl A. Futia
Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 2 (Mar., 1982) , pp. 377-408

And books like this

Futia, Carl A.
Predicting Market Trends With Periodic Number Cycles
SC
$ 50.00

Futia, Carl A.
The Principle of Squares
Reprint

But Im not sure what you are implying? Of course i guess I should read tyhem ! Thanks for the pointers.

PS there used to be MS Dos Quickbasic ability in every MS operating system installation. Any idea where that can be found now? There are loads of MS quickbasic code sources for Numerical Methods and Fractals like the one to the left
G

[theplumber]

Gary, go to this url and look at the names matched to books and see if something doesn't look right as far as your knowledge for a match, hopefully you'll understand what I mean b/c this practice is popular with people who right books http://www.luckowgroup.com/l&sbooks.htm

A good site to learn some charting techniques using various Gann techniques is here, click on year and then highlighted chart list. The older dates have the best/most detail. I learned alot of ideas just viewing these charts http://www.solarmatrix.com/bestofgann.htm

On a house keeping note, I appreciate the gratitude people have for me and want to say thank you. I don't ever want anyone to think I think I'm all that, I trade for a living so Ms. Market keeps me pretty humble (as well as the wife)
I actually know I'm nothing compared to some of the traders I know and just try to work as hard at trying to get better, and these charts are just some of the things I've seeing.

I was walking on the beach this morning and couldn't help but notice the bright full moon and it reminded me to look at this chart . Ensign has a feature that colors the bars according to moon phases. The blue is the full moon phase and has prodused a kind of panic down or top, since March 6 has produced 2 each. If this plays out as a panic cycle down it will be in character with the past, and if it doesn't then that is out of character and signal a change in the market. What kind? Don't know until it happens but I'll be watching. The Gann fans are set according to a square chart, a better way to see the intersections and how they work pretty well if done right.

[theplumber]

Just some chart observations

[theplumber]

Another chart observation