Trading the markets with Jerry Olson

[jerryo]

SNDK OPTION TRADE

SNDK---NOT SURE IF IT REVERSES HERE 3 BOXXES TO 27 IT COULD BUT I WOULD NOT WAIT...I PROJECT IT TO 35 BY EARNINGS DATE. THE 20 EMA IS AT 28 THO...BUY THE JULY 27.50 CALLS SWQ GY, OR THE JULY 25 CALLS SWQ EG SEE IF YOU CAN GET 100% DOUBLE ON THESE...

[jerryo]

YO FIBBGANN

what a morning..not giving it back either<vbg>

you had some excellent trades in there...i loved it and so did the room..

good to see you in there giving it a try...

[buzz1224]

25 in newsletter? too much and hard to track

Although I was in the room today, the calls were not from the newsletter (about 33 plays!! difficult to follow) and the newsletter plays triggers were "off" for various reasons. Some interesting plays in the room but folks seemed to be playing on their own reminding me of my grade school days of study groups everyone doing their own thing. Do you have charts for you newsletter saved in the "File Sharing" area? The plays were very complicated to track. Do you call IBM calls irrespective of the movement of the stock? Per you advice picked up the 27.50 calls for July SNDK only up 25% but the April 27.50 were up 50% and much cheaper. Are you bullish or bearish IBM? The short triggered at 93.60 but is the long looking "great" or the short.

SNDK got in 30 (above the close)
while you posted 30.55 why the wait? NVLS 34.25 no trigger. NTES entered 54.75 long but it promptlymoved to to 53.64. Where was the stop? KLIC the short 12.95 so I guess we wait?

[soylent]

Hey Buzz --

>SNDK got in 30 (above the close)
> while you posted 30.55 why the wait?

Not in the room w/ you but I did look @ SNDK since you mentioned it. Don't know Jerry -- but, I do respect his T/A just from seeing his posts here.

So, my guess is: He wanted to see it take out the HIGH of day before going long. High / low much more important, in my opinion, than close when looking @ swings.

On NTES:
Pesonally, I like to see a stock break it's 10:20-10:30am high before I will consider for a swing. Even if it takes out the previous day high. If I want to jump it, I'll look for a soft open and try to enter on a retrace. But, that's too much work because then I have to monitor the dang thing. So, I don't even start looking @ charts for swings until 10:30... You're probably OK in NTES but it had a wee bit of divergence to clean up on some lower timeframes? Right now, it's showing good reverse divergence, so I'd expect it will hold on / rally. The 60minute is very strong.

Those are just my thoughts.

Best,

-c

[soylent]

p.s. Just looked @ ntes to see where I'd 'get out' / put a stop....

Actually, I wouldn't be in. Yet.

It's too wishy-washy. I mean: I expect a better entry will show itself to you.

You should get a rally in the next day or so but I don't like to see my money just sitting there.

I assume you bought options? I can't stand taking the hit on the spread, so if I had to pick a spot to 'absolutely bail out' it'd be a break of the low of today. Why? It may just be a stop gun exercise, but you can never be certain...

-c

[buzz1224]

NTES yep

April 55 calls possibly the stock above 54 but it was confusing since the short play posted was 53.65 and the low was 53.60 and I assumed scalpers would be looking for the short trigger. Bullish implications for the 57-58 area then why post the short at all? Anyhow its certainly not boring, if not that clear. Just looking for the charts and figured I missed them since they aren't posting on the newsletter or in this forum. I did short SINA under @ 39.75 and covered at 39.06 all the while waiting for someone to mention NTES. Guess with so many plays I was focused on the wrong ones. I'll try again. My suggestion is 1/4 the plays though and more follow through. The May 15 calls PMCS but when? At the open? I picked up the April 17.50 when PMCS was 18.15 (no direction was given) they were up 43% while the May 15 were twice as expensive and only up 11.75%.

The trading ideas are okay just not followed through. If you are a moderator there, I wish you would convey that to the staff.

[smokey]

ntes

On NTES:
Pesonally, I like to see a stock break it's 10:20-10:30am high before I will consider for a swing. Even if it takes out the previous day high. If I want to jump it, I'll look for a soft open and try to enter on a retrace. But, that's too much work because then I have to monitor the dang thing. So, I don't even start looking @ charts for swings until 10:30... You're probably OK in NTES but it had a wee bit of divergence to clean up on some lower timeframes? Right now, it's showing good reverse divergence, so I'd expect it will hold on / rally. The 60minute is very strong.



Looks like while bullish, ntes may need to see 48 for a swing before it goes higher.

[soylent]

Hey FibbGann --

Yeah -- I was reading the text log from Jerrys site & saw your / others posts last week.

Wow!

You are all in a totally different class from me. I don't have the instinct to react as fast as you all do.

I just go for nice slow swings on middle-of-the-road stuff. Works great w/ leverage. And, as you say, 'targets/stops/and not being greedy...'.

-c

[soylent]

> 3 years of 18 hrs a day, 6 days a week (if not 7). to learn

Yep.

In 'new market wizards' - the intro - there is a story about 'the jade master'. This student comes to learn about jade and the jade master hands him a piece of jade and tells him stories about watching grass grow. The student asks when he's going to learn about jade. The jade master sends him home and to come another day. After 6 months of this over and over, the student shows up, the jade master hands him a stone and the student says, "Hey, this isn't jade!".

Trading is like that... And, I can relate to your experience. I've been trading / practicing 12 hours a day for 9 months. I was successful @ first, then unsuccessful, then lost a humongous amount (about 50% of everything!) w/ leverage (duh!), then learned how to NOT lose, then learned how to make money consistently...

Now, I can glance @ a chart and know if I want to trade it. I only trade w/ leverage. So, futures for a 70 tick, 250V's, 3/5 trend. Or, I'll use options on stocks/indexes @ the 13/60/Daily/Weekly level...

Always enjoy your posts. I even made some money off a couple when your ideas matched w/ my trend-ages!

Thanks Fibgann,

-c

[jerryo]

Originally posted by FibbGann
$TICK lesson:

The tick is just like and intra-day chart of a stock, futures contract,
Index. It should be played just like them on an intra-day basis. Look for support and resistance on the tick, LH, HL, ect.

I use a 5 minute line chart.

I have line at the +1000 and -1000, if $tick breaks through these areas one can expect a pullback temporarily. They are refered to as extreme ticks.

Little note: If the tick oscillates above the -200 all day without continuous lower lows on the Tick, it will usually be a good day for longs. Vise Versa for short days.

If the tick oscillates below the +200 all day without continuous lower highs on the Tick, it will usually be a good day for shorts.

Grey area is -200 to +200

Green area is +201 and above

Red area is -201 and below


If you look at the chart below for today you can see the $tick never closed above the +200 all day thil near the end. (where we got our push!)

Oh Jerry, HUUUUUUUUUUUGE DAY!!!

Fibbgann

Thanks Fibb

appreciate that $tick idea...yes it was a fabuouls day for sure...NOK warned here...this am...

[jerryo]

Re: 25 in newsletter? too much and hard to track

Originally posted by buzz1224
Although I was in the room today, the calls were not from the newsletter (about 33 plays!! difficult to follow) and the newsletter plays triggers were "off" for various reasons. Some interesting plays in the room but folks seemed to be playing on their own reminding me of my grade school days of study groups everyone doing their own thing. Do you have charts for you newsletter saved in the "File Sharing" area? The plays were very complicated to track. Do you call IBM calls irrespective of the movement of the stock? Per you advice picked up the 27.50 calls for July SNDK only up 25% but the April 27.50 were up 50% and much cheaper. Are you bullish or bearish IBM? The short triggered at 93.60 but is the long looking "great" or the short.

SNDK got in 30 (above the close)
while you posted 30.55 why the wait? NVLS 34.25 no trigger. NTES entered 54.75 long but it promptlymoved to to 53.64. Where was the stop? KLIC the short 12.95 so I guess we wait?

==============================================

Morning buzz...

did not see you in there? what is your nickanme? you can right click on my name in the room add me as your pal and we can have a private message chat...

now as for the Newsletter, on Sunday i put out 20 stock trades for the week...This past Sunday i also gave out 10 options trades all calls for the expected ramp into earnings season...during the week i do 10 stocks per day pre market...

all of my trades yesterday were posted real time in text in red. easy to read easy to trade. i suggest you sit still for a day or 2 and watch the action...i did not make one loosing trade...

all of my triggers are always based on the close of trading prices... some never trigger others do, it's up to you to decide what trades to follow.. My suggestion is simple. If it's a trend day up, use the long side triggers as they will work a lot better then trying to do countertrend trades short. And visa versa if we are trending lower...

As for NTES it triggered a long at 54.75 and touched 55.53 soon afterwards...then it pulled back and stopped me out of a swing trade i had at 52.72 from last week...made $2.00...

as for option trades..you're not thinking right. Forget percentages on the moves...look for leverage in PRICE...thats what makes the money...Always trade IN THE MONEY options...never out of the monies...

btw i did not have NTES as an option call in my newsletter, and yes i love IBM for an expected near term run using calls...

so stay loose...watch the action and look for the trades that suit you best...

good luck

jerry

[jerryo]

Re: NTES yep

Originally posted by buzz1224
April 55 calls possibly the stock above 54 but it was confusing since the short play posted was 53.65 and the low was 53.60 and I assumed scalpers would be looking for the short trigger. Bullish implications for the 57-58 area then why post the short at all? Anyhow its certainly not boring, if not that clear. Just looking for the charts and figured I missed them since they aren't posting on the newsletter or in this forum. I did short SINA under @ 39.75 and covered at 39.06 all the while waiting for someone to mention NTES. Guess with so many plays I was focused on the wrong ones. I'll try again. My suggestion is 1/4 the plays though and more follow through. The May 15 calls PMCS but when? At the open? I picked up the April 17.50 when PMCS was 18.15 (no direction was given) they were up 43% while the May 15 were twice as expensive and only up 11.75%.

The trading ideas are okay just not followed through. If you are a moderator there, I wish you would convey that to the staff.

===============================================

just a qucik note we did not call to BUY PMCS calls in the room...when we do then it would be a good idea to play it..we always foloow thru with all trades thru conclusion.

NTES is not a good long call play at the 55 strike...while the "cost" of the options in the money are always more expensive they are alwys more safe! Out of the monies are cheaper but 85% expire worthless...use ITM calls...at all times and take 50% to 100% profit immediately..never be greedy with options..they are quick hitters...

[jerryo]

Re: ntes

Originally posted by smokey
On NTES:
Pesonally, I like to see a stock break it's 10:20-10:30am high before I will consider for a swing. Even if it takes out the previous day high. If I want to jump it, I'll look for a soft open and try to enter on a retrace. But, that's too much work because then I have to monitor the dang thing. So, I don't even start looking @ charts for swings until 10:30... You're probably OK in NTES but it had a wee bit of divergence to clean up on some lower timeframes? Right now, it's showing good reverse divergence, so I'd expect it will hold on / rally. The 60minute is very strong.



Looks like while bullish, ntes may need to see 48 for a swing before it goes higher.

===============================================

Soylent hi there

i think you can use the 10 am highs for your trades rather than waiting for the 10.30 time frame..draw lines at the 10 am highs and lows and then set alerts...

do the very same thing on your stocks..and you'll make nothing but money as long as you follow the futures too..

good luck...

jerry

[jerryo]

sorry that reply was to smokey...

[soylent]

>> Always trade IN THE MONEY options

Yes - yes - yes - yes!

I take it even further:
a) Always very in the money

I try to pay almost no premium. Usually, I look for a delta > 85ish. Sometimes, I'll go up to 95ish. Usually same-month options if I want to day-trade it or 3-6 month (depending on vix) if it's more than a 1-day hold.

This is a GREAT bargaining tool when dealing w/ market makers. Because the makers will compress premium (offer you LESS) when the stock us moving up quickly and raise it when the stock is dropping. At the CLOSE you can often calculate 'true premium' and get a great fill by placing a buy/sell w/ the correct premium for your option attached. If you are out-of-money, they will never fill you -- but if you are IN the money and place a reasonable premium -- they will usually fill you ABOVE BID...


-c